The high-profile meeting between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and US President Donald Trump underscores the delicate balance between cooperation and contention in bilateral trade and strategic relations. While both leaders projected a vision of a “mega partnership” driven by energy deals, defence cooperation, and immigration agreements, underlying tensions on tariffs and trade imbalances remain unresolved. The engagement signals progress, but the broader implications for India’s economic interests demand careful scrutiny.

One of the key takeaways from the Modi-Trump meeting was India’s commitment to increasing oil and gas imports from the US. For Washington, this aligns with Mr Trump’s push to narrow the trade deficit by boosting energy exports. For New Delhi, securing diverse energy sources is a strategic imperative, especially as geopolitical uncertainties continue to disrupt global supply chains. However, the flip side of this deal is India’s trade deficit, which could widen further if US energy proves costlier due to a strong dollar. This raises questions about long-term affordability and whether such purchases are sustainable without compromising fiscal prudence. The defence sector was another focal point, with Mr Modi expressing interest in acquiring advanced fighter jets from the US.

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This aligns with India’s broader push to modernise its military, particularly given regional security concerns. While access to cutting-edge US technology strengthens India’s defence capabilities, over-reliance on American arms could create dependencies that limit strategic autonomy. Balancing these purchases with the “Make in India” initiative will be key in ensuring that domestic defence production does not suffer at the cost of foreign acquisitions. Trade barriers remain a thorny issue. Mr Trump’s persistent complaints about India’s high tariffs reflect the larger struggle between protectionism and market access. Mr Modi’s willingness to reduce some tariffs on US goods is a pragmatic step to soften trade friction, but this is unlikely to appease Mr Trump, who has shown a strong inclination toward aggressive trade policies.

With the US increasingly using tariffs as a leverage tool, India must brace for the possibility of stricter trade conditions in future. Immigration, another recurring friction point, also featured in discussions between Mr Modi and Mr Trump. India’s acceptance of deported undocumented migrants was a gesture of cooperation, but concerns remain over the fate of legal Indian immigrants, particularly those on H-1B visas. Any tightening of US visa policies would impact Indian professionals, especially in the tech sector, affecting remittances and employment opportunities. The broader message from the Modi-Trump meeting is clear: while India and the US seek to deepen economic and strategic ties, transactional diplomacy continues to define the relationship.

Energy deals and defence purchases can smoothen trade disputes in the short term, but structural issues such as tariffs and visa policies require sustained negotiations. Mr Modi must navigate these complexities by leveraging India’s growing global stature while safeguarding its economic interests. A “mega partnership” may be the aspirational goal, but ensuring it remains equitable and mutually beneficial is the real challenge ahead.