In Cuba, demonstrations have taken over the streets over food shortages and hyper-inflation and in Haiti a President’s slaying has torn down the last vestige of governing by rule of law.

Now, President Joe Biden could have political ramifications for him in the battleground state of Florida.

Biden is facing increased pressure from Republican lawmakers for his administration to step up support of Cuban demonstrators.

And his aides have demonstrated determined caution in response to requests for more US involvement in Haiti.

The troubled U.S. history in both countries has hardened positions, making virtually any policy decision politically unpalatable for a president seeking to toe a middle line.

In the background: How the Biden administration handles the crises looms large in electorally rich Florida.

“The caution Biden is showing reflects the poor showing in 2020 and a desire not to repeat it,” said MacManus, who added that Haitian Americans are becoming a growing political force in South Florida.

“Democrats learned in 2020 that country of origin is a much more powerful voting cue in Florida than historical voting affiliation, and Trump’s hammering on socialism proved to be an effective message.”

Indeed, as the situations play out in Cuba and Haiti, Biden administration officials have responded cautiously.

White House officials said Haiti’s request for the U.S. to deploy troops was under review.

At the State Department, spokesman Ned Price said Tuesday he was not aware that the administration had rejected any request from Haitian officials but said the focus was on supporting the investigation into the assassination rather than providing military assistance.

U.S. officials have also made clear that the administration remains concerned about the infighting over who is rightfully Moïse’s successor in Haiti.

Meanwhile, the White House said a review of its Cuba policy remains underway.

To be sure, U.S. efforts to press for regime change have had their fair share of failures over the years: the 1961 Bay of Pigs invasion, CIA-backed assassination attempts on Cuban leader Fidel Castro, and sanctions that inflicted pain but never produced the ultimate goal of ending communist rule.

“We’re going to be taking a close look at what has and has not worked in the past, and unfortunately in the case of Cuba, there may be more that has not worked than what has worked,” Price said.

This week, Cuban police have been out in force as President Miguel Díaz-Canel has accused Cuban Americans of using social media to spur a rare outpouring of weekend protests

There are political crosscurrents for Biden as he addresses both situations.

On Cuba, the political right in the U.S. has accused Biden of not being supportive enough of Cuban dissidents.

Democrats, meanwhile, are unhappy that Biden has yet to reverse Trump’s hard-line approach to the island’s communist government as his administration carries out its review of Cuban policy.

Trump in a statement criticized Biden’s past promises to loosen restrictions on Cuba.

“Don’t forget that Biden and the Democrats campaigned on reversing my very tough stance on Cuba,” Trump said.

Florida Republicans Sen. Marco Rubio and Rep. Carlos Gimenez, a freshman lawmaker who represents a Miami district that Democrats are hoping to flip in next year’s midterm election, were among elected officials this week who called on the administration to maintain Trump’s Cuba policy.

They also called on Biden to aid the protesters, including by making free satellite internet access available on the island to subvert the Cuban government’s effort to stop activists from broadcasting their messages on social media to the world.

Biden lost Florida by about double the margin by which Trump beat Democrat Hillary Clinton there in 2016.

“Biden is no fool,” said Gimenez.

“It’s not just the Cuba issue, it’s the whole issue of socialism and communism and censorship that’s shifted the people of Miami-Dade over to the right. The problem that the president has is the extreme parts of his own party seem to be driving the agenda, and that he just can’t escape right now.”

White House spokesman Chris Meagher said Biden, dating back to his days in the Senate, has been a fierce critic of the Castro regime and is committed to Cuban human rights.

“He’s committed to forming his policies toward Cuba based on two principles: that standing up for democracy and human rights is paramount, and that Americans — especially Cuban Americans — are the best ambassadors for freedom and prosperity in Cuba,” Meagher said.