India’s demographic trajectory is changing, marking a significant shift from the times when phrases like “population explosion” dominated discussions about its burgeoning populace. Today, the narrative is no longer about unmanageable growth but about a steady deceleration in the number of births and the imminent ageing of its population. This evolution presents a complex array of challenges and opportunities for the nation. For decades, India witnessed rapid population growth ~ a trend that began altering around the 1980s as fertility rates started to decline. This shift is largely attributable to enhanced access to education and healthcare, especially for women, alongside greater economic opportunities. These factors have empowered individuals to make informed choices about family size, leading to a drop in the Total Fertility Rate (TFR).

Presently, many states, particularly in southern and western India, boast TFRs below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman. This indicates a population that is not reproducing enough to sustain its current numbers, heralding a future where the population could potentially shrink. Simultaneously, India is greying. Improved healthcare has increased life expectancy, shifting the median age upward. This ageing is poised to contribute increasingly to the population dynamics as older demographics naturally exhibit higher mortality rates. Thus, while the youthful median age has been a demographic advantage so far, it is set to pose significant challenges in terms of healthcare and pension systems in the coming decades. The implications of these demographic shifts are profound. A declining fertility rate might suggest fewer young people entering the workforce, potentially leading to a shortage of labour. This scenario needs attention. It requires substantial investment in education and skill development to ensure that the workforce remains robust and can drive economic growth.

However, an ageing population could strain resources as healthcare costs are likely to increase and the need for age-related services expands. Moreover, with more people exiting the workforce than entering, the pressure on social security systems could intensify, necessitating thoughtful policy reforms today to mitigate challenges tomorrow. In this context, the path forward for India involves a balancing act. It must capitalise on its still relatively young population to boost economic growth while preparing for the future where a larger proportion of elderly citizens will need support.

This includes not just revamping healthcare and pension schemes but also creating ageing-friendly infrastructure and services. The changing demographics also offer an opportunity to rethink and innovate in terms of urban planning, technology for elder care, and flexible employment options for the ageing workforce. Moreover, with different states experiencing demographic shifts at varying paces, tailored regional strategies will be crucial. India’s slowing population growth is not just a statistical trend but a signal to pivot to new policies and priorities. How effectively India navigates this demographic transition will significantly influence its socio-economic landscape in decades to come.