People with chronic kidney disease (CKD), Type 2 diabetes, or both were predicted to have elevated cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk from eight to 28 years sooner than someone without those conditions, according to a preliminary study on Monday.

Scientists from Northwestern University in Chicago conducted a simulation study to estimate the impact of cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic (CKM) syndrome on cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk prediction.

They found that people with CKD alone would have high heart risk eight years earlier than those without the disease. Among diabetics, the risk can hit about a decade sooner than those without it.

Among people with both diabetes and CKD, women were predicted to reach elevated risk for CVD 26 years earlier and men 28 years earlier than those with neither condition.

“Our findings help to interpret the combination of risk factors that will lead to a high predicted CVD risk and at what age they have an impact on risk,” said lead study author Vaishnavi Krishnan, a researcher at Northwestern University.

“For example, if someone has borderline-elevated levels of blood pressure, glucose, and/or impaired kidney function, but they don’t yet have hypertension or diabetes or chronic kidney disease, their risk may not be recognised. Understanding how age interacts with risk factor levels is important to optimise CKM health.”

The study found that without CKM syndrome, the expected age to reach elevated CVD risk was 68 years for women and 63 for men. However, with CKM components added to the simulated patient profile, the same risk level was predicted to occur at a much younger age.

The findings will be presented at the American Heart Association’s Scientific Sessions 2024 to be held from November 16-18 in Chicago.