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China

Will Xi play ball with Trump on Ukraine?

US president-elect Donald Trump has invited China’s president Xi Jinping to his inauguration on January 20 in a surprise move which appears to be part of a plan to involve Beijing in ceasefire negotiations in Ukraine.

Limits of consensus

As a recent Brookings Institution report noted, both the USA and China “would profit from the existence of third-party mechanisms that can provide impartial information, suggest road maps for deconfliction, and outline pathways for collaboration that neither side might trust if emanating from the other”. Asean exerts more influence on China than is commonly understood, especially given its ability to inflict “reputational cost” on Beijing.

Conflicts that may erupt

The International Crisis group, established in 1995, possesses a staff of over 100 experts, drawn from all walks of life, spread across most trouble spots including Africa, West Asia and central America. China is covered in its field reports while it only monitors India.