The byelection to the Kairana Lok Sabha seat of western UP is surely not going to be a cakewalk for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) this time as the rival Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) and Samajwadi Party (SP) alliance supported by Congress has put in all its strength to give a tough time to the ruling party candidate.

The Kairana Lok Sabha seat fell vacant after the death of senior BJP leader Hukum Singh after prolonged illness. The party has fielded the late MP’s daughter Mriganka Singh as its candidate perhaps trying to cash in on sympathy votes.

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Mriganka, however, lost the last assembly election from Kairana to SP candidate Nahid Hasan, whose mother Tabassum is now the alliance candidate against Mriganka.

Hukum Singh, who was considered a prominent Gujjar face of the region, had considerable sway over this constituency. Before becoming the party MP from Kairana in 2014 he was MLA from Kairana for four terms and was also a minister in the state government.

He had a mass following in the area but could not ensure victory for his daughter in the assembly election of 2017 in view of dissatisfaction among local party leaders. However, the party rank and file seem to believe that the sympathy factor would incline the voters towards his daughter in this election.

On the other hand, enthused by the recent victories in the Phulpur and Gorakhpur Lok Sabha byelections, the Samajwadi Party entered into an alliance with the RLD, which has considerable influence in the area.

The Congress too has come out in support of this alliance by deciding not to field any candidate and BSP is likely to stand with them. In the Kairana Lok Sabha seat and Noorpur Assembly constituency, where bypolls are to be held on 28 May, the alliance has decided to field RLD candidate Tabassum Hasan and SP candidate Nadimul Hasan respectively.

Tabassum Hasan was the BSP MP from Kairana in 2009. Her late husband Munmawar Hasan was also a BSP MP from there and now their son Nahid Hasan is the MLA from Kairana.

The Hasan family are a politically experienced family. In fact, Nahid had contested the 2014 Lok Sabha election on an SP ticket against Hukum Singh but could not win.

He, however, settled scores in the assembly election by defeating Singh’s daughter. Singh was disappointed as he wanted to prepare the political ground for Mriganka.

Now once again the two families are face to face for yet another political battle in Kairana. This time interestingly between two women from two different communities.

“We are hopeful of winning this election,” asserted Mriganka, adding that people of the area feel strongly about her star-crossed father. “We are contesting the election on the issue of development, free gas and electricity given to the BPL families and the work done by the BJP governments both at the Centre and state,” said Mriganka, who is yet to develop political maturity.

On the contrary, Tabassum Hasan , a seasoned politician, claims that the farmers and poor are in distress and she is raising their issues in this election.”About Rs 700 crore dues of sugar cane farmers from 3 mills of the area are pending even though the concerned minister is from Kairana Lok Sabha constituency,” she said, adding that farmers in general are in turmoil and prices of electricity have been raised. Besides there is no employment for youth and people are helpless, she said.

“We are raising the issue of corruption which is at its peak and no one is attending to the problems of common people,” said Nahid Hasan, Kairana MLA from SP, who is looking after his mother’s campaign.

“Many senior leaders of the RLD and SP are already in the constituency and have started campaigning vigorously,” said Sunil Rohta, state spokesperson of RLD, adding that the party vice-president Jayant Chaudhary and party supremo Chaudhary Ajit Singh have also joined the campaign now while Charu Singh, Jayant’s wife, would also be in the area for campaigning .

“Thousands of party workers, leaders and SP leaders are already there covering every nook and corner of the constituency,” claimed Rohta, adding that former CM Akhilesh Yadav, Azam Khan and Ayyub Ali, national president of Peace Party, would also come to campaign for the alliance candidate Tabassum.

To support RLD in its campaign the Samajwadi Party too has put in its resources and man power. Party’s state president Naresh Uttam Patel, MLC Sanjay Latur, MLC Virendra Singh Gujjar have already started wooing the voters. Former minister Shahid Manzoor and more than 35 senior leaders have been put on the task by the party leadership.

The BJP, too, is giving its best in this election so that there is no repeat of the Gorakhpur and Phulpur byelections. Apart from other prominent leaders, BJP state president Mahendra Nath Pandey is camping in Kairana and ensuring that the party retains the seat vacated by its MP.

“We want to ensure a good turnout of votes in this election. Our target is that at least 55% voters turn out for voting and ensure victory to BJP,” said Pandey, who also seems to be banking on the sympathy wave. The BJP is afraid that a low turnout as in Gorakhpur and Phulpur might affect the prospects of the party.

“Hukum Singh has done a lot for the welfare of the people of Kairana,” said Tajendra Nirwal, party MLA from Shamli in Kairana constituency. “Hindus exodus was a big issue highlighted by him but now under the Yogi regime it has improved and so has the law and order situation,” he claimed.

Of the five MLAs from Kairana Lok Sabha constituency four are from BJP and of these Suresh Rana (Thanabhawan) and Dharam Singh Saini (Nakur) are ministers in the Yogi government. These four are also part of the campaign team of the BJP, hence their prestige is at stake in this election.

“We are banking on the work of our governments,” said Suresh Rana. People will vote for the work of CM Yogi and PM Modi governments, he added.

But far from serious issues, this by-election seems to be an example of social engineering. The alliance has played the Muslim card by fielding Tabassum.

There are 5.50 lakh Muslim voters and they are likely to be polarised in favour of RLD candidate.

RLD has influence over Jats too. They were considered traditional voters of the party but drifted away after the Muzaffarnagar riots in 2013. But Jats are now coming back to RLD and the party rank and file are working on how to revive the winning Muslim-Jat equation.

Both Ajit Singh and son Jayant have been trying to recreate their magic through extensive tours in western UP through ‘Jan Samvaad’. Ajit Singh in his recent visit to Meerut has appealed to the masses to reunite against the BJP, particularly farmers and Muslims.

The BJP, however, is targetting the Gujjar, Jat and upper caste votes. Mriganka being a Gujjar is likely to get a good number of votes of her clan, feel party leaders.