Since the inception of India as the sovereign nation after the eclipse of British colonial rule, the country has faced challenges both for internal factors and equations as well as the agenda of the so-called neighbours around India. Not only Pakistan, which always tries to sabotage India’s interests, but all other nations sharing land, river, or maritime borders with India have been parts of the larger strategic design against India. The situation in Kashmir and adjourning regions prove this. No doubt, India had to engage in full-scale wars against Pakistan for the sinister design of Islamabad regarding Kashmir. One can hardly afford to ignore Kargil. Related to this is that the non-state actors and fanatic elements nourished and nurtured by Pakistan bled India several times. However, it is also true that, despite huge strategic advantages, Pakistan is on the verge of collapse today.

But those who run the affairs in Pakistan share a border with India across the north–eastern states. India has always faced strategic and security challenges in the north–eastern region of the country. In fact, volatility and north–east have almost become synonyms, and there are several factors behind this. But New Delhi has always been casual about the northeast. This ignorance proved to be fatal for India, and New Delhi realised this when water had reached above the shoulder. Naturally, such an approach has failed to sort out the issues of the region. The conflict-torn region has evolved as a threat both for common men and the geo-strategic interests of the country. This callosity of Indian leadership has brought the nation before dual challenges, one on the western frontier and the other on the north–eastern frontier of the country.

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However, there is nothing new in this narrative. The question is not hyping history. The question is rather about those who displayed the worst incompetency and insensibility in dealing with an issue related to India’s national interests. This is the reason the country is facing strategic and security challenges on different fronts. The challenges seem larger in the context of north–eastern states. After all, the affairs related to India’s north–eastern states can never be discussed, keeping aside these biting realities. The north–eastern region of the country has always been volatile. But the situation has become more complicated with the passing of time.

The external challenges seem to be a never-ending saga here in the northeast. Today, Tripura has become a hotspot of criminal activities, particularly issues related to Bangladesh. A media report published on 5 October stated that a group of suspected smugglers attacked and seriously injured a Border Security Force (BSF) head constable deployed along the India-Bangladesh border in Tripura. The incident took place on 4th October morning. The same report also stated that smugglers attacked BSF Jawan with sharp weapons and bamboo and tried to snatch the service rifle of the BSF head constable, which compelled him to fire in the air. Apart from anything else, this exposes the daring approach of the smugglers who are running illegal rackets. But the latest one was not the first incident of attacking BSF in Tripura. In 2024. The mainstream Indian media reported an attack on the BSF by Bangladeshi miscreants in a separate incident on the India-Bangladesh border that took place in June this year. But this has been going on for years across the India-Bangladesh border region in Tripura. Similar incidents took place in 2019 and 2021. On 4 October, Tripura police seized 72 sacks containing 9,900 bottles of Eskuf and Phensedyl worth Rs 50 lakh in the international market. Apart from drugs, human trafficking has been going on in Tripura at an alarming rate. On 1 October, a joint operation conducted by the Tripura police and the Border Security Force (BSF) arrested Nazmul Hossain on charges related to human trafficking and facilitating illegal cross-border movement. So also, agencies let the media know that Nazmul Hossain is also involved in the sinister plan of penetrating Rohingyas in Tripura. The drug racket has extended its network up to Arunachal Pradesh. On 27 September, Assam police arrested Ainul Rajibul Hussain, alias Raja, and Sonu Deori, alias Bikash Deori, in two separate operations. Police reports confirmed both running drug rackets in Arunachal Pradesh.

On the other hand, along with drugs, the illegal arms business increased in Manipur. As per media reports, the Assam police seized 15 improvised explosive devices (IEDs), 42 country-made grenades, detonators, and other combat materials from Tengnoupal of Manipur. The same reports stated the arrest of some cadres of different insurgent groups belonging to Manipur, like Kanglei Yawol Kanna Lup (KYKL), People’s Liberation Army of Manipur (PLA), and United National Liberation Front-Koireng (UNLF-K). But the incident that caught larger attention was a mob attacking and storming a police station in the Ukhrul district of Manipur that killed three people, including Manipur Rifles personnel. The miscreants looted weapons from the police station. So also, there is no sign of ceasing the sectarian clashes in the state. The recent abduction cases fuelled the conflict afresh.

Meghalaya witnessed an upsurge of Bangladeshi infiltration. The recent reports prove that Meghalaya has become the favourite hunting ground for Bangladeshi infiltrators. There seems to be a certain pattern that indicates that certain elements of Bangladesh are adamant about changing the demographic profile of the entire northeastern region. On the other hand, a new form of crime was reported from Assam a few days back. Assam police arrested one person with 20 stolen Android phones at the Assam-Meghalaya border. Meanwhile, fresh kidnapping cases came to light from Assam. This time, the kidnapping took place in Guwahati city.

All these may sound like isolated incidents and different types of crimes. But in the context of the Northeast, such incidents can never be taken lightly. The incidents prove that Tripura has emerged as the favourite transit ground of illegal trafficking. The drug or arms trafficking taking place in the north–east always has a connection with Myanmar, and behind Myanmar, it has always been China. This is a part of the larger game plan of China against India. The daring approach of Bangladeshi smugglers proves that the crime has been institutionalised in Bangladesh and designed against India. But from the strategic dynamics, it is obvious that the smugglers have the backing of a powerful lobby on both sides of the borders. Considering the expanse of running such rackets and arms and ammunition seized by the security forces, it seems after Myanmar, Bangladesh is taking forward Beijing’s anti-India agenda. The incidents in Manipur obviously prove the failure of the government to ensure peace. But it is also undeniable that there are certain elements who never want a stable Manipur. The demographic and religious dividends of Manipur better spell it out.

The prevailing situation proves that the north–east is on the crossroad yet again. But the issues are not confined only to the north–east. The attack on BSF personnel, trans-border illegal drugs and arms deal, storming police station, attacks on security personnel, and upsurge of Bangladeshi infiltration prove it is time to reframe policies related to the north–east. India’s approach should be both tactical and aggressive as per the needs of the strategic agenda of the country. Will New Delhi take things seriously? If yes, how will New Delhi respond? These remain to be seen.

The writer is an independent contributor