As indications come from Dhaka that Bangladesh may go for national elections this year itself if the concerned political parties agree to accept a minimal reform in various administrative, financial and electoral agencies with assurances that the winning representatives in Jatiya Sansad (National Assembly/Parliament) will continue pursuing the reform process in the South Asian country. Bangladesh caretaker government head Professor Muhammad Yunus recently pointed out on different platforms that the stalled election can be held by December 2025, and he has already directed the responsible authorities to prepare for the general elections. However, the Nobel laureate, who took the leadership of an interim government in Dhaka soon after Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina was ousted by a student-led mass movement in July-August 2024, asserted that the Muslim-majority nation needs a major reform in various sectors, including civil & police administration, anti-corruption departments, financial institutions, and the judicial and electoral systems, to bring the poverty-stricken country on the right tracks.

The country that shares over 4,050 kilometres of international border with India (1,879 km with northeastern states, namely Assam, Meghalaya, Tripura and Mizoram) has nearly 180 million people with over 12 crore eligible voters. The Bangladesh Election Commission has assured free, fair and comprehensive polls to elect the parliamentarians, following which a stable democratic regime is expected in Dhaka. People of northeast India (NE) continue looking forward to an improved relation with Bangladesh, as they expect normal exports comprising coal, limestone, stone chips, and bamboo products (and imports like cement, plastic goods, garments, processed food and beverages) besides an improved connectivity through road, rail and river routes crossing Bangladesh to the rest of India. Potential tourism revenues from Bangladeshi nationals and the use of Chittagong port as well as Sylhet airport are also expected to give dividends to the landlocked region of India.

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However, amidst the love-hate relations between Dhaka and the Indian Union government in New Delhi, Prof Yunus initiated coming closer to Islamabad, even though Pakistan itself is facing severe internal problems with the Baloch freedom-aspiring nationals. Political observers believe that the unholy alliance between Dhaka and Islamabad may pose more challenges to New Delhi. While Pakistan has remained an enemy nation since its birth, another neighbour, Bangladesh, also starts behaving like a foe to India.

Prof. Yunus had a meeting with Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif in New York during the United Nations General Assembly in September 2024 (but it was not materialised with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi). It was followed by regular cargo shipping and direct flights to facilitate the people to contact between Bangladesh and Pakistan (incidentally both were under the same territory as the Islamic Republic of Pakistan after separating from Hindustan in 1947). Lately, a delegation of Pakistani traders visited Dhaka with an aim to establish a joint council, and a team of Bangladeshi military officials paid a trip to Pakistan, followed by a Pakistani military delegation visiting Bangladesh. A popular Pakistani singer also performed Qawali in Dhaka with a rousing response.

One can remember the Pakistani forces killed nearly 30 lakh Bengali nationals during the Bangladesh freedom movement. Finally, East Pakistan emerged as Bangladesh with the support of Indian armed forces and millions of common Indians. Sheikh Mujibur Rahman became the first president of the country, which turned seemingly secular in nature, but soon Mujib was killed along with his close relatives. Decades later, his daughter Hasina (who luckily survived the massacre) became the Bangladesh government head as her party, the Awami League, won repeated national elections. Till she was deposed and compelled to take temporary shelter in India, Hasina maintained a confrontational stand towards Pakistan, asking Islamabad for a public apology because of the 1971 mass murder. Hoping to return back, Hasina recently criticised Prof. Yunus, which indirectly influenced the bilateral ties between Dhaka and New Delhi. In public places, representatives from both countries are talking about good neighbourly relations, but it has visibly deteriorated on the ground.

Lately, Prof. Yunus has been insisting on reviving the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), which faced deadlock because of growing enmities between New Delhi and Islamabad. It may be mentioned that representatives of eight SAARC member countries met last time in Kathmandu in November 2014. The deadlock began in 2016 when PM Modi decided not to attend a SAARC summit in Pakistan as India relentlessly faced Islamist terror attacks allegedly backed by Islamabad. The then Bangladesh premier Hasina also refused to attend the summit in Pakistan. Ultimately the forum, which was established in 1985 representing over 25 per cent of the global population, became defunct. On the other hand, PM Modi and Hasina initiated efforts to empower the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC), which is headquartered in Dhaka. As Prof. Yunus is calling for revitalising the SAARC on different platforms for collective benefit to the entire region, it’s assumed that he wants Pakistan as an effective player in the South Asian forum. However Prof. Yunus has not shown interest in promoting BIMSTEC (comprising member countries, namely Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal, Sri Lanka, Myanmar and Thailand) as it excludes Pakistan.

Prof. Yunus looks forward to meeting PM Modi at the next BIMSTEC summit, scheduled for 2–4 April in Bangkok. Dhaka even made a formal request to New Delhi for a bilateral meeting with PM Modi on the sidelines of the summit, but it seems unlikely to happen, as Prof Yunus is visiting China and meeting Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing on 28 March. The octogenarian banker turned the interim government’s chief adviser; he has, however, a limited time to fulfil his promises, as he cannot run his candidature in the elections (being the caretaker government chief), but some political analysts predict Prof. Yunus to be the next president of Bangladesh after the head of state, Mohammed Shahabuddin, completes his tenure by 2028. Nonetheless, NE will definitely hope that the unabated influx of Bangladeshi migrants will be stopped with a new government installed in Dhaka as a priority to safeguard the interests of northeastern indigenous communities.

The writer is a Guwahati-based special representative of The Statesman