Hoping against hope, India is looking at commissioning the ambitious Kaladan project connecting a port in Rakhine (Arakan) state of western Myanmar with the landlocked far eastern part of Bharat through the water and land routes for regular trading. But the project involving the Kaladanadan River continues to face hurdles from time to time. Initially it was a security challenge due to the changing political situation, followed by the Covid-19 pandemic, and finally a civil war-like situation in Myanmar (also known as Burma and Brahmadesh) is posing a lingering snag over the completion of the Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Corridor project, which was initially planned to launch by 2014. But the project with an initial budget of Rs 536 crore in 2008 (work started in 2010) has now crossed Rs 3,200 crore because of perennial delays and lately missed another deadline (2023).

Agreed officially between India and Myanmar in 2008, the Kaladan project was initiated by New Delhi’s then Look East Policy and later revamped as the Act East Policy, where Sittwe port in the Bay of Bengal is planned to connect northeastern states. The shipment is supposed to arrive in Sittwe from Kolkata, Chennai or any other international ports, and then it will travel through the Kaladan River up to Paletwa in the Chin state of Myanmar. Then the goods will be shifted to land routes and reach Zorinpui in the Mizoram border to connect other important localities in eastern India with National Highway 54. Even though the modernisation of Sittwe port and Paletwa jetty was already completed, the Paletwa-Zorinpui highway remains under construction.

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The India-bordering Myanmar localities were recently grabbed by the powerful ethnic armed group Arakan Army, defeating the ruling military junta. Not only Rakhine and Chin States, but the entire Southeast Asian nation has been currently facing a chaotic situation, where the military dictators are losing their grounds in the last few months to a number of organised outfits supported by the common Burmese nationals with arms in their hands. The complicated situation has resulted in the killing of thousands and injuries to another few thousand. Millions of Burmese people, including women and children, were compelled to leave their places since the last conflict that erupted after the military coup four years back. The junta forces led by Min Aung Hlaing now control less than half of the country.

Latest reports reveal that the junta now controls only 32 per cent of Myanmar townships, where 24 are slipful conflict zones, and 44 per cent have gone under the control of revolutionary forces, ethnic resistance organisations and people’s defence forces. To date, the Buddhist majority nation has witnessed the killing of over 6,000 civilians, mostly by the junta soldiers. The actual number of casualties may be higher as it cannot be authenticated easily in rural Myanmar. No less than 28,000 people were arrested, and nearly 21,000 still remain under military custody.

The indiscriminate airstrikes, artillery shelling and drone attacks by the junta forces on thickly populated areas, setting many villages and urban localities on fire across the country of 55 million people, became the order of the day. More than 3.3 million people have already been displaced, and they are presently facing acute food, medical and other logistic crises. In many relief camps, essential commodities have been prevented or restricted from being transported and distributed among the affected families by the military authorities. Currently, over 19 million people (one third of Myanmar’s population), including minors and elders, are in growing need of humanitarian assistance.

Mentionable is that the revolutionary forces under the banner of ‘Three Brotherhood Alliance’, comprising the Arakan Army, Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) and Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), had launched a massive offensive (titled Operation 1027) in late 2023. To date, the ethnic groups and resistance forces (also comprising the Kachin Independence Army, Karen National Union, Chin National Front, People’s Defence Forces, National Unity Government, etc.) have gained full control over 144 townships, leaving only 107 townships under the junta’s authority, where 79 townships are still facing offensives from the anti-junta forces.

The junta has lost 173 military battalion headquarters, including two regional military commands, six command headquarters and six strategic military bases, as well as 742 frontline outposts to the revolutionary fighters. Moreover, the armed militias have brought under control the important routes connecting the border towns with Bangladesh, India, Thailand and China. The AA fighters in particular captured 15 out of 17 townships with a large number of military bases, including the junta’s strategic Western Command headquarters in Ann locality. Following the intervention of China, the TNLA and MNDAA announced the ceasefire, but their fighters had already seized over 15 townships as well as several military bases (including Northeastern Command Headquarters in Lashio) in northern Shan state and the Mandalay region.

After suffering in a number of battles last year, where the junta has lost several towns, police stations, military bases and regional commands, the junta came forward with a plan to hold national elections by later this year. The junta-controlled Union Election Commission (UEC) even started preliminary preparations for the polls, including a countrywide census. By now the junta has extended the state of emergency for another six months (till 31 July 2025). However, the current regime does not hold its control over the entire country. A number of national and regional political parties are facing the UEC’s ban, hundreds of opposition leaders remain behind bars, and the media continues to be under heavy restrictions—all these conditions simply cannot ensure a free, fair, and comprehensive electoral process in Myanmar.

The anti-junta critics argue that all the elections in the land of Golden Pagodas faced severe challenges since its independence in 1948. The powerful military always dictates the political leadership, where the military-drafted 2008 Constitution made the situation more complicated for the pro-democracy activists, as it reserved 25 per cent of parliamentary (also legislative assembly) seats for the military-affiliated individuals. The continued detention of pro-democracy crusader Daw Aung Suu Kyi, who is turning 80 on 19 June, for a total of 19 years simply made the situation clumsier. So the fight for democracy and a creditable civilian rule in Myanmar is still going on.

Meanwhile, an active policy research and advocacy organisation, Progressive Voice, commented that the military junta has intensified its forced conscription campaign targeting persons in 18-35 age groups, issuing new measures on 23 January. The junta authorities have heightened the risks for Myanmar’s youth, including women and children, forcing them to become pawns for the junta or risk everything to escape with constant fear of capture, punishment and death, it added. Since its forced conscription started in February 2023, the junta continues to recruit young people, even snatching them from the streets, buses and planes, as well as their residences, to deploy on frontlines. Intending to recruit 5,000 conscripts per batch, the junta is now on its ninth batch, but the exact number of forced conscripts remains unclear.

A comparison study between the 1 February 2021 military coup and present-day Myanmar reflects that the country was experiencing a kind of political stability and economic growth under a quasi-democratic government in Naypyitaw, but now the whole country emerges as a battleground, where millions of civilians are suffering. The arbitrary military operations, including over 3,000 airstrikes on populated areas, have resulted in the death of at least 6,225 people, including 710 children and 1,350 women. The number of political prisoners has increased from 234 before the coup to 21,711 till last month. A huge number of elected representatives, pro-democracy activists, writer-journalists, artists and civilians have been imprisoned for opposing the military regime.

Days back, a forum of lawmakers from the Southeast Asian nations opposed the junta’s revived cybersecurity laws with a warning that it would pose a serious threat to the fundamental rights of common people. The ASEAN Parliamentarians for Human Rights (APHR) also stated that the laws contradict Myanmar’s own constitution that guarantees the rights to free expression and privacy. The draconian legislation is a calculated attempt by the junta to suppress dissent, stifle free expression and violate the privacy of Burmese nationals, asserted the forum, adding that the actual purpose of new laws is to eliminate any opposition to the military regime and solidify its grip on power. The APHR also called on the international community to take immediate action by denouncing the conspiracy and putting diplomatic pressure to abandon the oppressive legislation.

Now New Delhi has to engage with the opposition rebel groups, maintaining the relation with the junta with an aim to counter Chinese influence in Myanmar and propagate the India-supported missions, including the Kaladan project. Some Burmese ethnic groups were even invited to India for preliminary interactions so that the relation gets grounded. The meeting with Arakan Army representatives in New Delhi was productive, if the foreign ministry officials are to be believed. Another round of discussions was organised in Bangkok too. The Yangon-based Indian Ambassador Abhay Thakur recently visited Sittwe, and the junta-controlled media outlet Global New Light of Myanmar reported on 18 January that he conveyed to the Rakhine State government New Delhi’s hope for an early return to peace and stability in the region.

The writer is a Guwahati-based special representative of The Statesman

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