India is entering the seventh month of 2024 with the Shravan month, famous for the Indian monsoon. The monsoon season comes with a mix of hope and cautious optimism. The Indian Meteorological Department’s (IMD) latest update indicates that there might be good news: significant southwest monsoon rains have been experienced this year. Above all, for a country whose agricultural sector constitutes a vital economic value chain, this experience and projection carries great significance.

A sign of good things to come

The updated Long-Range Forecast Outlook by IMD proposes a positive outlook as it expects average rainfall of 106 per cent above the long-period average (LPA) with a possible error range of ± 4 per cent. This means that parts of central south India will likely receive excess rainfall while northwest India might experience a normal rainfall pattern. However, northeast India and some central and east regions could receive less than 94 per cent LPA. The Monsoon Core Zone (MCZ), comprising rain-fed farming areas, is expected to gain from such excessive rains. This is good news for farmers who depend largely on these seasonal showers.

Climate change dynamics

Intensely observed El Niño conditions at the beginning of the year have weakened into ENSO-neutral conditions, while La Niña might form later during monsoon season. Also, neutral IOD conditions over the Indian Ocean should turn positive, which will further help to increase monsoon rainfall. The southwest monsoon started over Kerala around 1 June, covering the entire country. This onset is carefully observed using consistent rainfall data from crucial stations, wind field patterns, and OLR values.

The role of rainfall in agriculture

Rainfall is an important agricultural factor as it determines crop quality and yield. In a report by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) in 2024, optimal rainfall can lead to a 10 per cent increase in crop yields, whereas drought conditions result in severe crop failure. Soil health, nutrient cycling, and pest management are also affected by rainfall patterns, hence necessitating strategic agricultural planning such as crop choice and efficient drought management.

Farmers should always be aware of weather forecasts to make decisions based on the information available. Excessive rain may cause the leaching of nutrients from the soil, thereby reducing its fertility and crop availability. Too much nitrogen and phosphorus can contaminate water bodies as well as soil. By performing regular analysis of soils, agronomists can advise farmers on how best to adjust fertiliser use during the growth period of crops.

Steering climate extremes: Strategies for agricultural profitability

According to the Ministry of Agriculture, more than 65 per cent of the population in India is dependent on agriculture, which is mostly affected by inconsistent monsoon rains. For instance, 24 drought-vulnerable districts have been identified by the National Rainfed Area Authority in Karnataka, Rajasthan and Andhra Pradesh. The other states like Kerala, Assam and West Bengal are also prone to severe flooding.

Agricultural droughts reduce water availability for crops, causing them to grow ill. On the other hand, floods destroy crops through lodging or submergence. These losses are escalated by a limited understanding of such events concerning agriculture. In this regard, one cannot overemphasise the significance of key tools like crop selection, optimal sowing window, and Agromet advisory services (AAS) towards mitigating these impacts through savings on yield loss and thus increasing farmers’ incomes from their agricultural enterprises.

Strategies for enhancing agricultural resilience

Accurate weather predictions will significantly aid farmers in crafting effective cropping plans based on reliable forecasts, particularly within the framework of weather-responsive agriculture. Creating contingency plans tailored to assure the timely supply of essential inputs such as seeds and fertilisers is crucial, with measures including alternative crop species and management strategies for various drought scenarios.

Enhancing soil health through organic manures can improve soil water retention capacity and offer substantial resistance against the effects of drought. Consequently, government programs should provide for the timely availability of green manure seeds and incentivise soil health initiatives.

Efficient rainwater management through watershed techniques supports agricultural sustainability and helps mitigate flood impacts during droughts. Strengthening custom hire services for farm machinery ensures prompt crop sowing, harvesting, and processing, particularly under extreme weather conditions.

Moreover, government purchase programs, marketing cooperatives, distribution to distant markets, and value-addition processes can manage surplus produce, preventing waste and ensuring farmers’ fair prices. Finally, mandatorily implementing affordable weather-based crop insurance policies is essential to protect farmers from financial losses due to unpredictable weather conditions.

A season of hope

Finally, the 2024 monsoon season, with its above-normal rainfall potential, brings a ray of hope for Indian agriculture and water resources and the overall climate balance of the country. The optimistic prediction is important for the economic health of the nation as well as food security measures. However, there are multiple ways one can address this broader issue of global warming through the amalgamation of short-term and long-term strategies aimed at ensuring financial returns in farming activities. Modern forecasting, strategic planning and effective resource management help India overcome the challenges of climatic variations, making farming lucrative and nurturing people living on earth today.

The writer is a clinical associate professor (research) at Bharti Institute of Public Policy, Indian School of Business (ISB). He teaches sustainability at ISB and contributes to IPCC reports.