We have just witnessed a post monsoon Cyclone Dana, which had made a landfall somewhere between Bhitarkanika and Dhamra in Odisha on 24-25 October. The wind speed was somewhere over 110 kmph, accompanied by extremely heavy rainfall across the entire coastal region of the Bay of Bengal. The intensity of the rain increased after the landfall process was completed early Friday morning.

Despite apprehension and anticipation that Cyclone Dana will play havoc in the coastal region, it went slow as the cyclone lost its intensity over time as it crossed the coast.

Providing a sigh of relief to the entire vulnerable population of the Bay of Bengal region, who to a certain extent got spared of its fury, resulting in minimal human casualties. It was also due to the tiring efforts of preparedness by our disaster authorities, who have undoubtedly become champions of saving lives and achieving zero casualties.

The mangrove belt acted as a barrier and a vital speedbreaker for the cyclone. Experts pointed out that the mangrove belt barrier enabled wind reduction, minimising the impact of the cyclone acting as “storm surge protection.”

The impact of Cyclone Dana on the vast population in Sunderban in West Bengal and Kendrapara in Odisha was significantly mitigated due to the natural protective barrier provided by the mangrove forests. “Human settlements along the coast were shielded by these mangrove forests, which helped absorb the wind velocity of Cyclone Dana.” said environment activist Somendra Mohan Ghosh.

However, despite the success in keeping human casualties at bay, the destruction is on the rise, with an increase in economic losses added each year with such climate disasters. As the state continues to carry out the loss assessment of the extent of damage from cyclone Dana. It is clearer that each year these economic losses are impacting the state severely. This includes losses incurred due to the severe impact on strategic public infrastructure, displacement of population, loss of property and assets, including prime real estate, with an additional cost of rebuilding it. With future uncertainty, all of these could affect states economic growth and the effectiveness of macroeconomic policies.

A study published in Nature Communications found that the cost of 185 extreme weather events from 2000 to 2019 was $2.86 trillion, or an average of $143 billion per year. The costliest North Indian Ocean cyclone on record was Cyclone Amphan in 2020, which caused over $13 billion in damages.

Cyclone Nargis became the second-costliest cyclone in 2008 after causing $12.9 billion in damages. Cyclone Gonu is the costliest tropical cyclone in the Arabian Sea. Other costly cyclones include Cyclones Fani, the 1999 Odisha cyclone, and Cyclone Phailin. These costs of impact from unavoidable natural disasters will likely go higher in the absence of sizable adaptation funds for the state. By 2030, the developing world will need more than $2.4 trillion to address climate change every single year.

Warming ocean temperature: A recipe for disaster

Over the decades, cyclones in the region have become more intense and more frequent given the favourable climatic conditions the Bay of Bengal offers. The region, which has become warmer significantly as a result of increasing global mean temperature, is more prone to tropical cyclones.

The marine temperatures across India’s vast coastline, particularly the Bay of Bengal, are on the rise, offering an ideal condition for tropical cyclone intensification in the region. Usually warm sea surface temperatures are required for tropical cyclones to form and strengthen. The commonly accepted minimum temperature range for this to occur is 26–27 degrees Celsius; however, with water temperatures in the Bay of Bengal going above 30 degrees Celsius, cyclones in the region will be more frequent and intense.

As per scientists, since the 1950s, the fastest surface warming has occurred in the Indian Ocean. The ocean heat content has increased from 1971 to 2018 by 0.396 [0.329 to 0.463, likely range] yottajoules and will likely increase until 2100 by two to four times that amount under SSP1-2.6 and four to eight times that amount under SSP5-8.5.

At the ocean surface, temperature has, on average, increased by 0.88 [0.68 to 1.01] degrees Celsius between 1850–1900 and 2011–2020, with 0.60 [0.44 to 0.74] degrees Celsius of this warming having occurred since 1980. The ocean surface temperature is projected to increase between 1995 to 2014 and 2081 to 2100 on average by 0.86 [0.43 to 1.47, likely range] degrees Celsius in SSP1-2.6 and by 2.89 [2.01 to 4.07, likely range] degrees Celsius in SSP5-8.5.

As per Roxy Mathew Koll, a climate scientist at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology and lead IPCC author, “Bay of Bengal has been riding on the wave of global warming during the past few decades. Temperatures have been between 30-32 degrees Celsius in the Bay of Bengal. These high temperatures play a very important role in intensification of the cyclonic storms as they infuse more convection.”

“Sea surface temperatures are increasing. The mechanism behind the formation of cyclones does not change, but weather conditions are changing. Cyclones have been intensifying at a faster pace in the recent past. The sole reason behind this is not just an increase in the sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) but rising ocean heat content (OHC). Earlier, the system used to take 2-3 days before forming into a tropical storm, but nowadays we change from depression into a cyclonic storm in just a day. The atmosphere not only interacts with SSTs but also with the entire ocean. It is very much evident from the research that OHC is changing because of climate change,” said M M Ali, meteorologist and oceanologist, Andhra Pradesh state disaster management authority, emeritus scientist G, and group director, atmosphere, ISRO (Indian Space Research Organisation).

The future needs to work together

In future scenarios, the coastal states would require financial assistance for risk management, rehabilitation and recovery of the loss and damage. The Dana Cyclone showed how prompt action of government and administration could minimise the extent of damage. Raising the need for more coordination among vulnerable coastal states to work together and build on breakthroughs that accelerate transformative adaptation across the region.

Only coordinated efforts could unlock the financing necessary to enhance preventative and anticipatory actions. There is a strong case for strengthening early warning systems that carries the potential to significantly reduce the impact of disasters and related losses. This must be the case for the current discourse on loss and damage funding arrangements. The fund is expected to provide billions of dollars in immediate grant-based financing after a disaster, which immediately disperses finance in the form of direct budget support to a country that has been hit by a disaster.

A report released “The Emissions Gap Report 2024” on Thursday ahead of COP29 to be held in Baku, Azerbaijan, from November 11 to 22 is a dire warning to countries, as the assessment also reveals that the increase in total greenhouse gas emissions has been above average from 2022 levels at 1.3 per cent. In the decade preceding the Covid-19 pandemic (2010–2019), GHG emission growth averaged 0.8 per cent per year. The authors of the report said countries are worse off now compared to the preceding decade in terms of climate action.

To keep global warming under 1.5 degrees Celsius, emissions must fall 42 per cent by 2030, compared to 2019 levels. For 2 degrees Celsius, emissions must fall 28 per cent by 2030. In the 2035 nationally determined contribution targets, emissions must fall 57 per cent for 1.5 degrees Celsius and 37 per cent for 2 degrees Celsius.

The writer is a consultant associated with Climate Trends, a New Delhi based Research and Communication Outfit