Post the disaster at the White House, Volodymyr Zelenskky arrived in London to a warm welcome and support from European nations. Added was the presence of Canada’s Justin Trudeau. The welcome was largely because Europe and Canada have also faced a hostile Trump administration. Canada is heading for increased tariffs while Europe was ticked off by the US secretary of defence Pete Hegseth and Vice President JD Vance on their own turf. Trump has also warned the EU of increased tariffs.

Canada and Europe are currently threatening counter-tariffs. The transAtlantic alliance is no longer what it was during Joe Biden’s tenure. At the end of the Zelenskky-European group meeting, British PM Keir Starmer mentioned, “Europe must do the heavy lifting,” adding, “to support peace, and to succeed, this effort must have strong US backing.” Europe is aware that they lack clout to push any deal through on their own and need US guarantees for ensuring the survival of Ukraine.

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However, they believe they can continue funding Ukraine even if the US does not. Europe attempted to send a message to the US that it cares for Ukraine as it is part of the continent. The group, termed the ‘coalition of the willing,’ announced its intent to develop a plan for ending the Ukraine conflict. There was hope that Zelenskky could also repair his relationship with Trump. Britain and France agreed to contribute troops for a peacekeeping force, if required. Starmer individually announced a financial package of military funding for Ukraine. In January this year, just prior to Trump’s swearing in, Starmer visited Ukraine and inked a 100-year partnership agreement.

It covers support through multiple sectors including health care and military technology as also security guarantees ‘once the war ends.’ Zelenskky mentioned that the agreement included a classified portion, which possibly is about sharing Ukraine’s rare earth resources. Europe believed that by threatening to develop its own peace plan it could display unity. Currently, Trump has no plans to involve Europe or Ukraine in any peace talks with Russia.

Eighteen European leaders voicing support for Zelensky after the diplomatic clash at the White House and promising to back him, ignoring the US viewpoint, will not sit well with Trump. The distance which existed between the US and Europe would only grow. The US had also warned Europe to cater to its own defence by enhancing spending as the US had other security concerns, implying China. This added to the growing transAtlantic rift. It compelled Europe to rethink. President Macron of France and German foreign minister Baerbock gave impassioned speeches claiming that Europe must prepare for war with Russia. Macron also offered a nuclear guarantee for Europe.

A recent press statement of the European Commission quoted its President, Ursula Von Der Leyen, mentioning, “Europe is ready to assume its responsibilities. Re-Arm Europe could mobilise close to EUR 800 billion for a safe and resilient Europe.” Europe has finally realized that it has to enhance its military budgets. Russia criticized Europe for its support to Ukraine. Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister, dismissed Europe’s offer for a peacekeeping force. He mentioned, “Now they also want to prop him up with bayonets in the form of peacekeeping units. This will mean that the root causes will not disappear.”

The Polish PM, Donald Tusk, mocked his European colleagues when he stated, “500 million Europeans are asking 300 million Americans to defend them against 140 million Russians.” He insisted that Europe must cater for its own defence. While Europe hopes that it could persuade the US to back its proposals, it also needs to be aware that in case Washington refuses, they would have an additional burden on themselves which will not be easy. US National Security Advisor Mike Waltz, recently mentioned, “If it becomes apparent that either President Zelensky’s personal motivations or political motivations are divergent from ending the fighting in his country, then I think we have a real issue on our hands.”

The US might seek a change in leadership in Ukraine, in case Zelenskky does not back down, while Europe may not. Waltz also mentioned that he and Secretary of State Marc Rubio advised President Trump after the disastrous White House meeting that they did not visualize anything moving forward in the future. Rubio had warned Zelenskky that ‘US aid is not unlimited.’ However, Zelenskky believes that Ukraine must continue the fight despite losses and that Western nations must provide him with the wherewithal. Ukraine is struggling to make up manpower losses on the battlefield, a fact highlighted to him by Vance in the White House. Zelenskky, despite his bravado in Europe, has realized that without US support Ukraine cannot survive.

Hence, he mentioned in Europe, ‘It’s crucial for us to have President Trump’s support.’ The reality is that accepting Putin’s terms, which includes a weak Ukraine, will mean an open game for Russia in the years ahead. Thus Ukraine needs US security guarantees. Hence, ultimately Zelenskky knew that he would back down and accept the mineral deal on US terms, which will include an unofficial security guarantee. This turnaround of Zelenskky did happen and he sent a letter to Trump. Trump, in his address to Congress mentioned, “Ukraine is ready to come to the negotiating table as soon as possible to bring lasting peace closer.

Nobody wants peace more than the Ukrainians.” To add pressure on Ukraine, the US stopped all intelligence sharing with the country. This alone will impact Ukraine’s offensive operations. It was the US’s command centre in Europe which was providing Ukraine with inputs on specific military targets in Russia, enabling it to engage them effectively. It also enabled Ukraine to determine where Russian operations would progress. This worked and Zelenskky capitulated.

Ukraine realized that without US support, future operations would be impacted. Hence, it was compelled to back down and toe the US line. Trump ultimately had his way. This surrender by Ukraine would impact Europe which was standing tall with Ukraine and conveying that it could stand up to Trump’s bullying. Europe, which was working on its own peace plan, is now out in the cold. It is left alone as Zelenskky again switches allegiance.

(The writer is a retired Major General of the Indian Army.)