Many nations have elections in 2024. In some cases, there could be a change in government implying a shift in policies, whereas in others it would strengthen current regimes. The outcome of elections could have a bearing on their immediate region or ongoing conflicts. In South Asia, Bangladesh, Pakistan and India will conduct national elections in the first half of the year.

American interference in Bangladesh’s internal matters, including conduct of elections, has witnessed an increase as the nation heads for polls. It has repeatedly called out the current leadership for undermining democratic processes. A change of guard in Dhaka could add to India’s security concerns, whereas continuation of the Sheikh Hasina regime would result in Washington further side-lining the country on democratic principles.

For India and Pakistan there can be no change in status quo till elections are held in both countries. In Pakistan, it is likely that Nawaz Sharif may be sworn in for the fourth time. His return from self-exile, imprisonment of Imran Khan and the silence of Bilawal Bhutto, signify this possibility. In Delhi, the reading on the wall is the return of Narendra Modi. The presence of Nawaz and Modi in Islamabad and Delhi respectively could signal a thaw in relations, provided Asim Munir, the Pakistani army chief, is on board.

The US is likely to pressurize Pakistan to move forward in its ties with India, as a precondition for allocation of aid. This could result in a reduction in Pakistani interference in Kashmir, though resolution is still some distance away. Grant of statehood to J and K could be the first step to reconciliation. If the Modi government returns to power in India, ongoing policies would continue. This could lead to an increase in foreign investment spurring growth.

The domestic defence industry would also witness a quantum leap in investments. India’s global standing, currently at an alltime high, would gain further. India could become a major global player. Europe is also likely to witness changes in the coming year. In March 2024, Russia goes to the polls, where President Putin is expected to retain power.

The opposition in Russia is almost non-existent. Simultaneously, Ukraine is scheduled to have elections by 31 March, though thus far President Zelenskky has claimed that they would be postponed on account of the ongoing conflict. He has also demanded additional grants to enable him to conduct elections. Pressure is bound to increase in the coming months on Zelenskky to conduct elections, which in all probability would be closely monitored by the European Union, to ensure they remain free and fair. If held, and if a new leadership takes power in Ukraine, peace talks with Moscow could commence. ‘

If Zelenskky retains power, there could be some hesitation but dialogue appear to be the only way forward. Putin has already hinted at discussions with the US, Europe and Ukraine, mentioning as a precondition, “we will do it based on our national interests. We will not give up what is ours.” Russia currently controls almost 20 per cent of Ukrainian territory.

With the Israel-Hamas war pushing Ukraine to the side-lines, there appears to be little option but dialogue. Divisions amongst European nations on backing Ukraine are on the rise. The opening of European Union membership talks with Kiev resulted in Hungary blocking Euro 50 billion aid to it. The new government in Poland has already stopped supplying military equipment to Ukraine. Geert Wilders, whose party won the recently concluded Netherlands election stated, “We believe we shouldn’t give military support to Ukraine while we are unable to defend our own country.”

Displaying neutrality, he also termed Putin as a ‘terrible dictator.’ While the UK is scheduled to hold elections latest by January 2025, Rishi Sunak has vowed to conduct them in the latter part of 2024, which could witness the arrival of the Labour party, as the Conservative party is losing ground. Europe too will elect a new parliament in June next year. A new European Commission is expected to be in place by the end of the year.

The new EU parliament and commission will be in place as US elections conclude. Though a US court has barred Donald Trump, currently the favourite, from contesting state primaries, its ruling is likely to be overturned by the Supreme Court. The arrival of Trump in the White House could dent US-Europe relations as also Ukraine would lose US backing, which is already waning. Trump has often criticized President Biden’s military and financial support for Ukraine.

Zelenskky mentioned, “I think he (Trump) will surely have a different policy.” Trump had insisted during his last tenure as president that Europe should increase its defence spending. He had desired that Europe must possess the capability to defend itself, rather than banking on the US. Europe would be unable to support Ukraine without US backing; this would play into Russian hands for talks. Trump has always been proIsrael.

He had announced the shifting of the US embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, much against global objections including from the Palestinians. His personal relations with Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli PM were always strong, though Netanyahu may not remain the PM till then. US confrontation with China would remain with either Trump or Biden in the White House.

For the US, China will be a challenge. Keeping it under check and preventing an expansion of conflict in the region is a US priority considering they have security agreements with Japan, South Korea and the Philippines.

Taiwan presidential elections are due in early January 2024. China is already running a campaign to keep the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), which seeks an independent Taiwan, from regaining power. It is backing the opposition Kuomintang, which welcomes closer ties with Beijing. China has enhanced its forays into Taiwanese airspace threatening aggression in case the DPP returns to power.

Thus, the results will be keenly watched. In case the DPP returns, the region will witness enhanced tensions. 2024 will be a year to watch. With elections in major countries, changes in approach can be expected. Policies of incoming incumbents will either reduce or enhance tensions in their immediate neighbourhood as also influence ongoing conflicts.

(The writer is a retired Major-General of the Indian Army.)