Will the Tokyo 2020 Olympics, that have now been rescheduled to open on 23 July 2021, ever take place? The speculation intensifies as Yoshiro Mori, the Tokyo 2020 president, in an interview in late April to Nikkan Sports daily, categorically confirmed that the Games could not be delayed until 2022 if the pandemic remains a threat next year, and “in that case, it’s cancelled”. Certainly, the price-tag for further delay is still unclear. Let us try to envisage a realistic chance of Tokyo 2020 taking place in 2021.

Incidentally, Yoshitake Yokokura, the head of Japan Medical Association, warned it would be “exceedingly difficult” to hold the Games in 2021 if a vaccine for Covid-19 is not found by then. While sporting events like IPL could eventually be organized even in empty stadia, such a model would severely fail for the Olympics. IPL, for example, will be able to earn most of its revenue by airing the ‘show’ on television.

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But the sporting world is expected to descend on Tokyo for the Summer Olympics and Paralympic Games, if they happen. If we recall, about four years back, there was a looming shadow of Zika virus over the Rio Olympics. Although the threat was never so alarming as of coronavirus and the Rio Olympics were not cancelled, the virus had seriously affected the games. The Olympics are expected to bring huge revenue by hosting millions of sports tourists from all over the world, but Rio de Janeiro received only 1.17 million tourists during the Olympic Games, 410,000 of whom were foreigners.

This is far less than the expected number, given that there were 470,000 visits from overseas to the UK for the London 2012 Olympic or Paralympic Games. And, in 2020, about 600,000 overseas visitors were expected to flock to the Japanese capital and surrounding regions. And, the Olympics without such tourism will be a nightmare for the host nation. Despite desperate effort of the organizers and Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, the pandemic has already forced a year-long delay of the Games due to heavy pressure on organisers and the International Olympic Committee from athletes and sports federations across the world.

However, will coronavirus be tamed by then? We know that about 12-18 months at least is needed to conduct the required three phases of clinical trials on human beings to get approval for a vaccine. And there is no guarantee that a vaccine will be available so easily, given that no vaccine for other coronavirus diseases like SARS or MERS is available yet. And, even if a vaccine for Covid-19 is obtained by July 2021, there is no clarity how and when billions of doses will be manufactured, what the price in different countries will be, and how and when all people of the world will be vaccinated, if at all.

Another possibility is to build ‘herd immunity’, although it is almost impossible that herd immunity for Covid-19 will be built in each participating country by July 2021. Consequently, several medical experts have enough doubt whether the pandemic can sufficiently be contained by next year to hold an event drawing participants and spectators from around the world. The disease will be very much there, people will still be affected. With lakhs of people flocking for an Olympics, and with more than 10,000 athletes and officials staying at the Olympic village itself, the Games could easily trigger another pandemic.

The cost of a cancelled Olympics, and that too at this stage, is tremendous. On one side of the equation, there is the business dynamic. The financial implications of a cancelled Olympics may be astronomical. The postponement might have already cost Japan about $6.2 billion, while the International Olympic Committee is known to have insurance cover. The cost burden for sports associations of different other countries might also be huge. If the Olympics are finally called off, it would cost somewhere between $12 billion to $25 billion for Japan only.

On the other side of the equation, there are the international sporting dynamics. Some of the top athletes in different countries have already announced their retirements after the initial one-year delay. Cancellation of these Games would mean an eight-year gap, and that would certainly deny many top athletes a chance to reach their pinnacle in their peak years. And it would certainly be “Olympic Glory Denied” for some of the world’s greatest athletes. We know that three Olympics have been cancelled in the history of the Games – due to World Wars I & II.

The scheduled host city for the 1916 Olympics was Berlin, and the then German capital had to wait two more decades until they could host the Games in 1936. Although London could host the 1948 Games after their scheduled Games of 1944 were cancelled due to World War II, Helsinki, the Finnish capital city, could get its turn only in 1952, twelve years after the 1940 Games were cancelled. And if the Tokyo Games are now cancelled, Japan will not get another chance before 2032, at least, as the Summer Olympics of 2024 and 2028 are already allotted to Paris and Los Angeles, respectively.

And, interestingly, India will be pitching for the 2032 Olympics. Certainly, it is way too soon to decide what the world situation is going to look like 14 months from now. However, the overall chances of holding the Tokyo Olympics appear to be slender. The whole world, including myself, however, would be eager to hold the Olympics in 2021 – mankind is betting on it. For that will mark the victory of the human spirit amid this global war against an invisible enemy. And that might also be the ultimate Olympic Glory.

(The writer is Professor of Statistics, Indian Statistical Institute, Kolkata)