Finally, it has come down to this: Kamala Harris’s abortion pitch and Donald Trump’s MAWA (Make America White Again) movement. Harris seemed to have meandered through a number of issues before she realized that abortion is make-or-break for her. Trump has stayed loyal to MAWA, that’s why he’s caught up with Harris in the polls. Why is abortion so important in the US? American women, like most any other women on the planet, like sex. But many do not like to see a child come out of a liaison. Contraceptives like the pill and the IUD are either unsafe or like condoms, kill the pleasure.

So American women often have unprotected sex. America is awash with unwanted pregnancies, including teenage pregnancies. Abortion is the only surefire way to stop a pregnancy. Of course, there is the issue of how to tackle late-term pregnancies. Roe v. Wade was a landmark decision of the US Supreme Court in 1973 that allowed women throughout the US to have abortion. In his first term as president, Trump packed the US Supreme Court with conservative Christian judges who struck down Roe v. Wade. Instead, they handed down the Dobbs decision which gave each of America’s 50 states the right to decide whether they wanted abortion or not. Almost half of America’s states are conservative-leaning. These states would typically ban abortion.

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A woman requiring abortion would have to go to another state that allowed abortion. This was not only inconvenient but also dangerous and expensive. Women nationwide protested against the Dobbs decision. Abortion was going to be the central issue of this election. Harris remembered that and then forgot that. Michelle Obama, wife of former president Barack Obama, is the most popular person in America. She hates politics, otherwise she would win in a landslide. She is also, unlike her husband, a reluctant campaigner. Barack can only talk so much about women’s bodies. Michelle can and she does.

Finally, Harris has roped her in to campaign in Michigan, a swing state. It may be a case of too little, too late. She should have snared Michelle around the time Trump got Elon Musk to campaign with him, a month and a half ago. Musk is a catch for Trump. Nothing much comes out of the MAWA movement except what’s in its name. MAWA supporters are supposed to be retarded, according to liberals. Having the richest man in the world endorse them gives them credibility that they had never bargained for. It’s down to the wire.

Trump’s support has not budged from 46-48 per cent. Harris has the same level of support nationwide, although her support has waxed and waned. But national support doesn’t decide the president. What matters are the swing states Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada. They are swing states because they tend to vote either Democrat or Republican. Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin were traditionally blue (Democratic) states and have come to be known as the Blue Wall, although Trump breached the Blue Wall in 2016.

North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada are traditionally Republican-leaning. They are called the sunbelt states because they are drenched in sun. Harris had multiple choices to 270 electoral votes and thus the presidency, but it seems that the Blue Wall is her only resort now. If she wins all three states in the Blue Wall, she wins the presidency. If Trump gets even one Blue Wall state, she’s done for. A note: Each state gets a fixed number of electoral votes depending upon its population size. If Harris wins Pennsylvania, she will win all of the state’s 19 electoral votes.

Trump is waging his own MAWA campaign of fear of the other, deceit and ugliness to propel himself to the top. Seemingly, enough Americans believe him. But he doesn’t realize that many MAWA women too are for abortion. Harris is waging a campaign of scaremongering over abortion and FUD (fear, uncertainty and doubt). It needs one scrappy politician to know one. If she can bring out enough women, including MAWA women, to vote for abortion, Trump is done for. But he’s not one to give up that easily. Making America white again resonates with a lot of Americans. After all, we in India are ourselves no strangers to identity-politics. (The writer is an expert on energy and contributes regularly to publications in India and overseas.)