Speculation is rife over Priyanka Vadra’s absence from the poll campaign in the family seats of Rae Bareli and Amethi. She has always been active in these two seats during elections, spending several weeks driving through dusty villages and addressing corner meetings. But this time, she has hardly been visible. She has kept a very low profile. She finally appeared on the last day of campaigning in Rae Bareli to accompany brother Rahul on a whirlwind trip through the area.

It would seem Priyanka is unhappy at the way things have turned out with ally SP in the Gandhi family bastion. The ten assembly seats in Rae Bareli and Amethi were a bone of contention between the Congress and SP during seat negotiation. Since the Congress had won only two of the ten in 2012, SP refused to give up this area to its partner. Congress negotiators pleaded on grounds of family sentiment but SP negotiators were firm.

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Ultimately, the Congress decided to fight all ten seats. This meant friendly fights with ally SP in eight of the constituencies. SP has not fielded candidates in the two seats held by the Congress.

Priyanka’s absence from the field is being seen as an indication of her annoyance over SP’s refusal to accommodate the Congress in its family bastion. Or is she missing because the Congress is unlikely to do well? In the 2012 election, Priyanka put her heart and soul into the campaign to retain the family strongholds. Her effort yielded just two seats for the Congress.

It was a big blow. This time, with SP pitted against the Congress and no help from BSP to mop up the Dalit vote, Priyanka probably feels it’s a wasted effort to devote so much time and energy on an election that doesn’t seem to be going the Congress way.

Praise for PM

BJP circles were surprised by a recent statement praising the Prime Minister from sidelined BJP leader and Modi bête noir Sanjay Joshi. Significantly, the comments were made in Lucknow in the midst of hectic poll campaigning.

Joshi was speaking at a seminar organized by the RSS and BJP. He declared that Modi is his leader and showered praise on him for getting international recognition for yoga.

The comments in Lucknow are seen as significant in BJP circles because Joshi is an influential voice in UP. He was in charge of the state many years ago and remains in touch with his vast network of supporters and followers. For him to repose faith in Modi in the midst of a tightly contested election is being seen as a boost to the BJP in UP.

BJP circles say that Joshi is desperate to return to the party and active politics. He was removed from the National Executive in 2013 on Modi’s demand and since then, he has been forced to stay away from BJP activities.

The RSS is believed to have offered to take Joshi into the Sangh and give him responsibility. But Joshi wants a homecoming to the BJP as a matter of honour. His desperation is making him come out with statements in praise of Modi every few months. BJP insiders say that Modi is unlikely to soften despite so much praise. There is too much negative history between the two men who were once close associates.

Shivpal’s overtime

No one is talking about it but Akhilesh’s estranged uncle Shivpal seems to be working overtime to damage his nephew in the family belt in the Rohailkhand region. He has put up some 40 candidates on the Lok Dal ticket in constituencies in Mainpuri, Etawah, Farroukhabad, Kannauj and Firozabad. Lok Dal should not be confused with Ajit Singh’s Rashtriya Lok Dal. It is a small local party which Mulayam Singh was at one point thinking of taking over. This was when father and son were fighting over the cycle symbol and there was a fear that the SP’s trademark would be frozen.

According to reports from the area, Shivpal is canvassing hard for his nominees in the Lok Dal. It may be recalled that Mulayam Singh dropped a bomb recently when he asked for votes for a Lok Dal nominee contesting in the adjacent seat to the family constituency of Jaswant Nagar. That was the first public signal that something is amiss in the family. Mulayam had gone to address a rally in Jaswant Nagar for brother Shivpal who is fighting on an SP ticket.

The LD nominee for whom Mulayam sought votes in his rally is a Shivpal loyalist who was denied a SP ticket by Akhilesh. Will the continuing battle in the family impact the outcome in the Yadav belt? We will know on March 11 when the results are out.

Banking on a split

Why is BSP chief Mayawati soft on Akhilesh’s estranged uncle Shivpal? In many of her speeches lambasting the family feud in the Yadav clan, she has always portrayed Shivpal as a victim and expressed sympathy for him.

Shivpal, according to her, was betrayed and insulted by his nephew although he had worked hard to build up the party for the family. Knowing Mayawati’s strong antipathy for the Yadav clan after the guesthouse incident in Lucknow in 1993 when she was almost killed by Yadav goons, it is surprising for her to show sympathy for any member of the family.

Political circles speculate that she is hoping that the fight will split the Yadav votes, giving her an entry into the Rohailkhand area where she has traditionally been weak.