As the country faces the spectre of above-normal temperatures in its key wheat-producing regions, the nation’s agricultural landscape is poised at a critical juncture. The heat forecast for February sparks con-cerns about the impending impact on crop yields, a worry that echoes the challenging weather conditions experienced in previous years, leading to a sharp decline in state reserves. The vulnerability of India’s wheat production to adverse weather conditions is not a novel predicament.

The nation, the world’s second-largest wheat producer after China, grapples with a delicate balance between ensuring food security for its 1.4 billion people and the political ramifications of potential imports. The looming question revolves around whether the Centre should yield to the pressing need for wheat imports, a move that might be necessary to avert a severe shortage and skyrocketing prices.
‘
However, the timing couldn’t be more sensitive, with a general election on the horizon. The reluctance to import wheat stems from the fear of unsettling farmers, a crucial constituency that plays a pivotal role in shaping electoral outcomes. The repercussions of a third consecutive poor wheat harvest are tangible. The past two years have witnessed hot and unseasonably warm weather, which took a toll on wheat output, leading to inventories dwindling to their lowest levels in seven years. Prices soared far above the government-set minimum support price, exacerbating concerns about affordability and access to this staple for millions. India’s northern states, including Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, and the central state of Madhya Pradesh, are the epicentre of wheat cultivation. These regions are bracing for above-normal temperatures during a crucial stage of wheat growth, raising fears of potential crop damage. Wheat, being a winter crop, is particularly susceptible to dry conditions, and a rise in temperatures during the grain formation stage could spell trouble for yields. In 2023, India experienced a significant dip in wheat harvest, at least 10 per cent lower than the Centre’s estimate. A prolonged cold spell initially favoured wheat during its vegetative growth, only to be offset by rising temperatures later in the season. The result was a stark reminder of the fragility of agricultural production in the face of climatic unpredictability.

The narrative underscores the need for a nuanced and comprehensive approach to tackle India’s wheat challenges. While the immediate concern is securing a robust wheat supply to meet domestic demand, a broader strategy encompassing climate-resilient agricultural practices, research and development, and farmer support systems is imperative. As the Centre contemplates the delicate decision of whether to import wheat, a forward-looking perspective is essential.

Embracing sustainable agricultural practices, investing in technology to mitigate climate risks, and providing farmers with the necessary tools and knowledge can pave the way for a more resilient agricultural sector. At the same time, a concerted effort must be made to promote the use of other staples. The delicate balance between addressing the immediate crisis and implementing proactive measures will shape the future trajectory of India’s agricultural landscape.