It is because Uttar Pradesh is the politically most dominant and electorally most significant state in India that the Assembly election is perhaps more vital for the Bharatiya Janata Party than for other players in the mix. This is not to say an improved showing by the Congress would not help it clutch on to a semblance of relevance, or that the Bahujan Samaj Party does not need to prove it can arrest its decline, or, indeed, that a Samajwadi Party victory would not give the Opposition at the national level a huge fillip.

But the point is that even if the Congress’ seat tally fails to make it to double digits, the BSP’s vote percentage slips, and the SP falls short of a win, it would only reiterate these parties’ political-electoral limitations which, in turn, would have very limited, if any, impact on their respective leaderships. Not so, for the BJP.

For the ruling dispensation, the results of the UP poll are likely to have a substantial impact both in Lucknow and Delhi ~ ideologically, organisationally, and in terms of the leadership succession issue after the 2024 General Election within a year or so of which Prime Minister Narendra Modi will attain the age of 75, his self-imposed ceiling for BJP leaders to take a step back from holding positions in party and government.

There are multiple reasons why the 2022 UP election is expected to set the course for the BJP over the next few years. First, the state is an exemplar of the party’s strong Hindutva pitch combined with wideranging welfare programmes and a call to nationalism which has been the SOP for the BJP across North India. In Yogi Adityanath, the party has not just a chief minister who has cultivated a no-nonsense image but also a leader who campaigns robustly headlining these issues and is committed to them ideologically.

Also, he is in his late 40s, which makes him a contender for a larger role at the national level post2024, especially given the state to which he belongs sends 80 MPs to the Lok Sabha. If he can pull off a win in UP, Adityanath will seek to buttress his position nationally, even though he will be the first to concede there are other deserving candidates in the government and in the party.

It is evident that the entire party machinery is going full tilt in the campaign to retain Uttar Pradesh. In the midst of the dust kicked up in what is turning out to be a keenly contested poll, however, there are those in the backrooms who understand that the issues which may find resonance in North India do not necessarily work in the South and East of the country. Ditto, the leadership. Interesting times lie ahead; in the interim, the BJP has everything to lose if it does not win UP.