On paper the BJP and the Congress winning one seat each in the Assembly by-polls in Rajasthan and Haryana might appear a case of “Even Steven”. Yet the pathetic performance of Randeep Singh Surjewala in Jind (Haryana) will surely deflate the Congress’ having attained 50 per cent of the seats in the Jaipur Vidhan Sabha courtesy Shafia Zubair’s win in Ramgarh. The Jind poll was a prestigious affair and by winning the seat for the first time the BJP would see it as an endorsement of its chief minister ML Khattar ~ also a first for the party in the state. Though the victory was secured through the “adoption” of the son of the Lok Dal member whose death necessitated the byelecton, it triggered speculation that the party might opt for advancing the Assembly poll to cash in on what it expects would be a winning gallop by Mr Narendra Modi ~ Khattar would need that kind of external assistance for the BJP to retain power. An early election would brighten BJP prospects, as well be in step with the Modi-Shah move for simultaneous parliamentary and assembly polls. It would also rub salt into the wounds of the Lok Dal, now fragmented as a result of the squabble in the Chautala clan.

The real casualty in Jind is the leadership of Rahul Gandhi. Surjewala is one of his pet political wards, often tipped as a potential chief minister. Already an MLA, he was drafted into the Jind contest to try and further the “revival” process seen in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh. Alas for Rahul, his “national spokesman” finished in the miserable third spot, barely managing to save his security deposit. That could accelerate Bhupinder Hooda’s bid to regain the top slot in the Haryana unit of the party. And in keeping with recent moves in the Congress favouring veterans like Kamal Nath and Ashok Gehlot, point to ambitious young bucks having to first prove themselves on the ground before entertaining hopes for the gaddi. The larger message is that the defeat of the BJP in three states does not point to a Rahul-wave across northern India. Also that “palace favourites” do not automatically command local popularity ~ one view is that party workers resented Surjewala’s imposition. The Congress president has a hard task setting his house in order before the Election Commission announces the dates of reckoning ~ and pointing accusing fingers at the election machinery is yielding diminishing returns. True that the results of a couple of assembly by-polls have limited relevance to the upcoming “determination”, but Rahul clearly needs to involve other party seniors in the battle, they are generally sidelined at present. And with plans for a “front” taking a back seat even Priyanka on her own is unlikely to become a fairy godmother. Electoral success is more than a Cinderella story.

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