The political temperature is rising in Tamil Nadu after this week’s verdict of the Madras High court upholding the decision of the Speaker disqualifying 18 MLAs loyal to the expelled AIADMK leader TTV Dinakaran, who now heads the party’s splinter group, Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam (AMMK). The crucial verdict is likely to change political equations in the coming days. It is indeed a big relief to the ruling AIADMK though the government is still fragile. Interestingly, even after the High Court order, chief minister E.

Palaniswamy’s government has a wafer-thin majority. Had the judgment been adverse, it would have endangered his government. The larger picture is that the total strength of the House has come down to 214 following the disqualification of 18 MLAs and death of two legislators – M Karunanidhi and AK Bose of AIADMK. The Assembly is short of 20 members at one go, which is unprecedented. That reduces the required majority from 118 to 108 (including the speaker) in an Assembly with 234 members. The bigger threat for the ruling party now is facing the people at the time of bye-elections whenever they are held. It will be crucial as the future of the major players depends on that. Why were the 18 MLAs disqualified? It was after they submitted a letter to the then Governor Ch. Vidyasagar Rao, expressing no confidence in the Palaniswamy government. Following this, Tamil Nadu Speaker P Dhanapal on September 18 last year disqualified these legislators owing allegiance to TTV Dinakaran on the ground that they had tried to pull down their own party’s government.

Dinakaran and his aunt Sasikala (Jayalalitha’s close confident) had been expelled from the AIADMK last year. The MLAs moved Madras High court following this and have now lost their case. One of the dissident MLAs has already switched camps. How will this verdict impact the various stakeholders in the state? For the ruling AIADMK, it is a temporary reprieve. The party does not have a charismatic leader like the late Jayalalithaa to campaign in the ensuing Lok Sabha and bye polls. Despite fielding adequate manpower and money power the AIADMK lost the R K Nagar, (Jayalalitha’s constituency) bye-elections last year to TTV Dinakaran who contested as an independent. People are not very happy with the EPS government. The EPSOPS factions have some frictions between themselves. There is a view in the state that the BJP is using the AIADMK as its puppet.

The BJP is eying a foothold in Tamil Nadu with the help of the ruling AIADMK. Incidentally the Union Minister (BJP) from Tamil Nadu, Ponn Radhakrishnan has commented that the verdict should have come much earlier, endorsing the Palaniswamy government. Since Jayalalitha’s death, the BJP first tried to work through her successor O. Pannerselvam, then through Palaniswamy and now through the EPS-OPS combine. It tried to isolate Dinakaran and Sasikala factions. The BJP is now betting on Rajinikant, who plans to launch his own outfit soon. The BJP is keeping the door open for the DMK also. For the Dinakaran faction, it is a setback. He was said to be keeping all options open including an understanding with the opposition DMK to pull down the EPS government. An understanding between the DMK and its allies (97 MLAs) and the Dinakaran faction could have made things worse for the ruling faction. Together their number would have gone up to 116 in the Assembly. Dinakaran has had informal talks with S Ramadoss’s PMK and Vijayakanth’s DMDK, parties with sizeable vote shares in northern Tamil Nadu. He has held over three dozen public rallies amidst an assessment that he is popular. He has no lack of funds. He has the support of the influential Thevar community, a powerful OBC group, in central Tamil Nadu.

Interestingly, there are also reports of rapprochement talks between the AIADMK and AMMK. The DMK wants to face the byepolls and test its strength sooner rather than later. The DMK is in talks to build an alliance with Dalits, the Left and the Congress. The new party chief M.K. Stalin will be facing his first test after the death of Karunanidhi in the ensuing Lok Sabha polls. But the problem is that the party is still in a transition phase from Karunanidhi to Stalin. The question is when will the bye-polls be held? They could be held along with the Lok Sabha polls. Stalin recently chaired the meeting of his party’s district secretaries and urged the Election Commission of India to hold bye-elections to all 20 Assembly seats at the earliest. The Congress is depending on the alliance, as it has no hold of its own. The smaller parties do not matter except their value for arithmetic and caste calculations. On the whole, Tamil Nadu’s political instability after Jayalalitha and Karunanidhi’s deaths may continue.