The capture of a major military base in Lashio by the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) marks a turning point in Myanmar’s struggle against military rule. This significant defeat for the junta not only underscores the rising power and coordination of rebel forces but also signals potential shifts in the region’s geopolitical landscape. For over three years, Myanmar has been engulfed in conflict following the military coup that ousted the civilian government.

The coup, which ignited widespread protests, has evolved into fullblown armed resistance. The junta’s violent crackdown on peaceful demonstrations galvanised thousands of young protesters, who have since joined forces with established ethnic rebel groups to wage a relentless campaign against military oppression. The fall of Lashio represents a potent symbol of this unified resistance, illustrating the weakening grip of the junta on the country. The capture of Lashio is unprecedented, marking the first time one of Myanmar’s 14 regional military commands has fallen to rebel forces. This defeat is not merely a tactical loss but a strategic blow to the junta, exposing its vulnerabilities and eroding its authority.

The loss of senior officers, whose fate re mains uncertain, further compounds the junta’s predicament, potentially crippling its command structure in the region. The MNDAA’s victory in Lashio demonstrates the in creasing effectiveness and resolve of the resistance movement. This success has been lauded by other ethnic armies, such as the Kachin, Karen, and Chin groups, who have pledged to continue their fight until the military regime is toppled. Such solidarity among diverse ethnic groups highlights a growing consensus against the junta, suggesting a more formidable and unified front moving forward. The implications of this development extend beyond Myanmar’s borders. China, which has significant interests in Myanmar, has called for dialogue and an end to hostilities.

The collapse of the previously brokered cea sefire by Beijing and the resurgence of fighting in northern Shan state underscore the fragile nature of peace efforts in the region. As Myanmar’s military faces increasing pressure, India and other neighbouring countries must navigate the complexities of supporting stability while addressing the aspirations of Myanmar’s ethnic groups. The rapid fall of the North-eastern Command has exposed the junta’s weaknesses to both the resistance and the international community. It raises critical questions about the sustainability of military rule in Myanmar and the potential for a broader shift towards democratic governance.

For junta chief Min Aung Hlaing, the loss of Lashio could represent an existential threat, potentially heralding the beginning of the end for his regime. As the conflict continues to unfold, the international community must remain vigilant and supportive of efforts to achieve a peaceful resolution. The fall of Lashio may well be a watershed moment, paving the way for a new chapter in Myanmar’s history, where the aspirations of its people for peace, justice, and democracy are finally realised.