No historian could have watched the 28 February 2025 Trump-Vance-Zelenskky press briefing without recognizing that it was a 21st century ritual execution of a Roman gladiator in front of a worldwide audience. Donald Trump gave a lesson in brutal realpolitik to the world when he told Zelenskky that “you don’t have the cards right now. With us, you start having cards…You’re gambling with World War III.”

Two weeks earlier, Vice President JD Vance shocked Europe during the Munich Security Conference by saying that the greatest enemy was Brussels (and not Moscow) because it was stifling innovation, under-spending on defense and not pulling its fair share of weight on Ukraine. At that Conference, Singapore Minister of Defense Ng Eng Hen quipped that the United States have shifted from a country once perceived as a force of “moral legitimacy” to something akin to “a landlord seeking rent”.

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Sorry, it’s more like a capo de capo telling his underlings that they need to pay more for his protection. If Trump 1.0 was China’s wakeup call in 2018 when he launched the first round of tariffs and sanctions, 2025 is Trump 2.0’s wake-up call that Europe cannot take America’s defence umbrella for granted. While Trump detractors dismiss his actions and pronouncements as chaotic and destructive, his Make America Great Again carries two clear goals – one is to restore America’s manufacturing prowess under the tariff wall and the second is to restore America’s unipolar position.

Three years of carnage and destruction from the Ukraine war drew four crucial lessons for Trump and his right-wing tech oligarchs. First, forever wars were bleeding US fiscally and industrially, delaying America’s ability to focus on its peer rival, China. Second, both Zelenskky and Netanyahu are leaders of small states that act as “tails wagging the dog”, because they could commit the US to nuclear war with no upsides. For America to regain policy sovereignty, both leaders must be brought under control. Both could only survive by continuing their wars, but making the US and Europe pay for their follies. Third, tariffs and deals like claiming rare mineral rights from Ukraine are essential for reducing the unsustainable American fiscal deficit. Since Trump cannot increase income taxes and antagonize his rich supporters and the Federal Government cannot impose sales tax (domain of individual states), increasing tariff reduces the fiscal deficit and rising debt, which also buys time for America to onshore its manufacturing prowess.

Tariffs are of course two-edged swords, which may raise inflation and hit the poor. No surprise that US stock markets are being hit by the tariff war. Fourth, the Ukraine and Gaza wars demonstrated that the nature of 21st century warfare depends critically on cheap drones and mass production capacity in conventional ammunition, unmanned armed robots and smart hardware (see YouTube Elon MuskTalk007 and Erik Prince). Hence, ceasefires in Ukraine and Gaza will buy time to rebuild America’s capacity to fight World War Three and focus attention on its peer competitors, China and Russia, both of which have the manufacturing capacity and logistics to produce armaments at scale and also cheaper than America.

Trump’s art of the deal often throws his protagonists under the bus: “Sometimes, part of making a deal is denigrating your competition.” The fatal mistake of the Biden administration and Europe was to eschew diplomacy in negotiating with Russia over how to settle the Ukraine war. Their blind spot was to assume that you cannot negotiate with the devil, forgetting European history that almost all wars are eventually settled through negotiation or full surrender after brutal fighting. Europe’s other amnesia was an overblown view of its own status, because Russia knew that a new European security strategic order can only be given by the United States, as head of Nato and with over 100,000 troops deployed in Europe.

Nato is fighting a proxy war, asking Ukraine to fight against an enemy four times larger in population and eight times in GDP. With declining armaments supply and resources from Europe and America, it is a matter of time that Ukraine loses on the battlefield. Trump cannot afford to inherit another losing or forever war from Biden. Thus, from a costbenefit point of view, the off-ramp strategy is to negotiate with Russia and leave the costs of shoring up Ukraine and defending Europe to Europe itself. The rare minerals deal simply tells Ukraine that the cost of continued support is America’s skin in the game, a profitable stake in Ukraine’s resources.

Zelenskky’s fatal error was to assume that his high moral standing as the Churchillian saviour of his people was enough to secure continued American support. Trump was never going to allow someone without any cards to declare World War Three on his behalf. As long as the region has outsourced its security and trade to America (largest European trading partner), Europe has no genuine sovereignty.

Europe also has few cards to play. After three years of brutal fighting, the Russian army has regained confidence that it can take on Europe in conventional arms, but not against the combined resources of Europe plus America. Putin knows that his real negotiating party is the United States as de facto head of Nato. A deal is possible, because no party wants a prolonged war of attrition, not even China. After the ritual putdown of Zelenskky, the Europeans have woken up to the merciless reality that they either remain as subservient vassals or somehow unite to regain their collective pride and sovereignty.

No European leader has emerged to lead the way, because Europe is not just a collection of squabbling members, but also totally divided within each nation. If Trump is able to pull off ceasefires in Ukraine and lasting peace in Gaza, he would go down in history as a Big Deal President. He has boldly swept aside all the niceness and high moral pretence of the post-war neoliberal order. The harsh reality is no-holds barred negotiations to buy time to square off for the next Great Power Art of the Deal. Let the show begin.

(The writer is Distinguished Fellow of Asia Global Institute, University of Hong Kong, and Chief Adviser to the China Banking Regulatory Commission.) Special to ANN.