In the complex landscape of global nuclear arms control, the traditional pillars of cooperation between nuclear-armed nations are showing signs of erosion. The latest developments raise concerns about the emergence of a new nuclear arms race, one that might be even more challenging to avert than the Cold War-era standoff between the United States and the former Soviet Union. The key factors at play in this concerning trend are America’s withdrawal from critical agreements, Russia’s assertive actions in Ukraine, China’s expanding nuclear arsenal, and the disruptive impact of advanced technologies. America’s exit from pivotal treaties like the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty and the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty has undoubtedly contributed to the current state of global arms control. While these decisions were motivated by concerns over non-compliance and evolving security dynamics, they have had ripple effects on the overall stability of the international nuclear order. These actions exemplify how abandoning agreements can set a precedent for other nations and undermine the foundations of arms control. Russia’s military actions in Ukraine have added fuel to the fire. Moscow’s repeated threats to use nuclear weapons have introduced a new dimension of uncertainty. Russia’s suspension of the New START treaty, including notifications and on-site inspections, has only deepened the mistrust between the nuclear powers, raising the risk of nuclear brinkmanship. China’s nuclear build-up is another concern, as the country is unconstrained by existing arms control treaties. While maintaining a policy of “minimal deterrence” for many years, the Pentagon predicts that China’s nuclear stockpile could grow significantly by 2035. This growth brings China closer to the deployed limits established by the New START treaty, complicating efforts to maintain a strategic balance among the three major nuclear-armed nations. The proliferation of disruptive technologies further muddies the waters. Hypersonic missiles, characterised by their speed and stealth, are difficult to detect and counter. The potential for a disabling surprise attack using these weapons heightens anxieties about the future of nuclear deterrence. Moreover, artificial intelligence’s role in decision-making raises questions about the extent to which nuclear conflicts could be managed by algorithms rather than human judgement. The USA, in response to these challenges, is modernising its nuclear triad, including ground, air, and sea-based systems. While the intention is to ensure a credible deterrent, it also hints at the readiness to produce more nuclear weapons if the need arises. The prospect of increasing weapons stockpiles presents its own set of risks, particularly in a world where arms control agreements appear to be fading. The multilateral approach to arms control has also come under strain, with all three major powers reluctant to pursue new agreements. As the last significant restraint on nuclear stockpiles, the New START treaty’s potential expiration in 2026 is a worrying prospect. Finding common ground on arms control becomes more difficult when three nuclear-armed nations are involved. The current state of nuclear arms control is clearly at a crossroads, characterised by uncertainty and challenges.

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