With the two major parties in the eight-party coalition staking claim to governance in Thailand having overcome the hurdle of choosing a Speaker, all eyes will be on the events of July 13 when the country’s parliament will meet to elect a new Prime Minister. The two parties, Move Forward, which secured the most seats, and Pheu Thai, which got the second highest number, were locked in a deadlock over the Speaker’s post, but have now resolved it by electing the nominee of a smaller party in their coalition, and agreeing to share the two posts of Deputy Speaker.

Veteran politician, Wan Muhamad Noor Matha, who has served previously as the country’s Speaker and deputy prime minister, will be the man in charge of parliamentary proceedings. But the coalition, which secured a clear majority by winning 317 of the 500 seats in the lower house, will need the support of at least 68 senators to elect a prime minister. This is because the Electoral College includes, besides the 500 members of the lower house, the 250 senators who were installed by the military. Despite these senators owing their loyalty to the military-backed dispensation of outgoing Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha, the people of Thailand will hope that at least some of them see fit to endorse the overwhelming mandate for change. Many senators must be feeling the pressure of popular expectations, for reports from Thailand suggest that attempts to overturn the verdict of the May election may lead to widespread protests and unrest.

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An economy facing headwinds because of various factors, including the impacts of climate change, can scarcely afford the costs of such protests for they will surely impact tourist arrivals in a country that depends to a considerable extent on the dollars visitors spend. Last year, Thailand had welcomed 11.5 million tourists, thrice as many as in 2021 but only a little more than a quarter of the 40 million it saw in 2019. Overall, tourism contributes 12 per cent of Thailand’s GDP, and the impacts of street protests would be considerable.

The other factor, of course, that will influence senators is the anti-monarchy stance adopted by the Move Forward party. Unless its leader Pita Limjaroenrat is prepared to scale down his objections to the role of the monarchy, he might find he faces an uphill battle. Yet another possibility is that the Pheu Thai party obtains support of a sufficient number of the MPs outside the coalition, and of the senators, and is on that basis able to stake claim. A final possibility is that the 183 MPs outside the coalition come together and stake claim with the help of senators. As the Thai potboiler approaches a climax, the people of the country must hope, first, that a resolution mirroring their will is reached and, next, that the muddled state of affairs does not give the military an excuse to step in.