For some time now, it has been evident that the military-backed regime in Bangkok and the autocratic one in Phnom Penh are the prime sponsors of Myanmar within the Association of Southeast Asian nations. By deciding now to host Myanmar’s foreign minister at a meeting, to be attended only by Cambodia, Thailand has drawn criticism ~ veiled, from its Asean partners, but strident, from human rights groups ~ on several counts.

The meeting is being organised nearly two years after Asean decided to end engagements with Myanmar’s generals for failing to honour an agreement to commence talks with opponents including the National League of Democracy led by incarcerated leader Aung San Suu Kyi. The other reason for criticism of course is that the regime in Bangkok rules in a caretaker capacity. For while the contours of a successor government may still be fuzzy, it is abundantly clear that the people of Thailand overwhelmingly rejected Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha and his party in recent elections.

Advertisement

Thus, those conducting talks with Myanmar’s foreign minister would quite clearly lack the mandate to arrive at conclusions. Thailand claims that the talks are aimed at complementing, and not supplanting, Asean initiatives, but this is not something its partners in the alliance are buying. Indonesia, the Asean chair, has refused to attend, while Singapore’s articulate Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan has made it clear that “it would be premature to re-engage with the junta at a summit level or even at a foreign minister level.”

Cambodia, which has close ties with China, just as the regime in Myanmar does, may have received a nudge from Beijing to attend. Indeed, it is Cambodia that has often batted for Myanmar within Asean, especially after the military overthrew the civilian government in 2021, and locked up prominent leaders including Ms Suu Kyi. What might Thailand’s mandate-less regime be hoping to accomplish with its decision to host talks? For one, many in the Thai establishment and those who support it, have strong business connections with Myanmar. This is the reason Prime Minister Prayut’s government has been ambivalent in its responses to the coup.

They would be concerned by the stance of the Move Forward Party, which leads an eightparty coalition bidding to take power in August. The party has often spoken out strongly against the coup and has even called for sanctions on Myanmar’s military rulers. Move Forward’s leader Pita Limjaroenrat has said he will change the country’s policy towards Myanmar, to align it with those countries that have called for a restoration of democracy. But if Thailand’s current rulers are able to midwife Myanmar’s return to Asean’s fold, or at least lay the groundwork for the process, before they lose power, it could provide a breather to the junta.