Tension is building up in the Taiwan Straits following China’s increasing military activities with the sole intention to intimidate the island nation, which it claims as its breakaway province and wants to annex, if necessary, by use of force. In its latest reported incursion on 25 December, China sent 71 warplanes, including fighter jets, to Taiwan’s air defence identification zone to intimidate the island.

Of these aircraft, 43 crossed the Taiwan Strait’s median line, an unofficial buffer between the two sides that lies within the defence zone. This constituted Beijing’s largest recent military activity within a 24-hour period. The intention of the drills was to manipulate public opinion in Taiwan.

China justified the drills as a resolute response to the current US-Taiwan provocation without specifying what the provocation was. China probably was referring to US President Joe Biden signing into law the National Defense Authorization Act for fiscal 2023, which contained Taiwan-friendly provisions.

The US sincerely feels that the Chinese activity shall destabilise the situation, risk miscalculation and undermine regional peace and stability. It therefore endorses President Tsai Ingwen’s decision to maintain a sufficient self-defence capability, which is in line with its longstanding commitments and consistent with its ‘One China”’ policy.

China’s argument on the provocation was flawed as the drills were held in international waters, where China is free to engage in such activities. Other countries conduct freedom of navigation passages of the Tai[1]wan Strait and the South China Sea. For example, the US and South Korea regularly perform drills in international waters and airspace near North Korea.

The reason not to put too much importance on the Chinese drills is because the public opinion in Taiwan is rarely affected by such drills. The Taiwanese people have grown used to these and do not take them seriously. Does this then mean only political posturing? The answer can be both Yes and No as it is not easy to decipher what Beijing has in mind despite frequent sabrerattling.

The closest Taiwan and China came to war was several decades ago in the 1996 Taiwan Strait Crisis, when then Taiwanese President Lee Teng-hui accepted an invitation to deliver a speech at Cornell University in the US. China at the time fired missiles near Taiwan, but backed off when the US sent aircraft carrier groups to the region.

Though China has acquired more military muscle since then, it is still not a match to the US might. It is aware that the US would be inevitably involved in any Taiwan-China military conflict, if it occurs, and that it cannot win a conflict that involves the US.

If China becomes adventurous and militarily attacks Taiwan, the US most likely would intervene as broader geopolitical considerations are involved. If such a situation unfolds it would cause incalculable dam[1]age to China’s military, economy and civilian infrastructure, and result in China’s total isolation from the global economy and international organisations.

So, China would have nothing to gain but everything to lose. An attack on Taiwan would also galvanise international support for Taiwan. That would be detrimental to China’s interests. Taiwan’s President Tsai has not loosened her guard.

On 27 December, she announced that compulsory military service will be extended from four months to one year, effective from 1 January 2024, to strengthen Taiwan’s combat readiness against potential Chinese attacks. In order to allay public disapproval, Tsai announced an increase in the monthly salary so that the basic daily expenses of the recruits are taken care of.

The decision is expected to affect conscripts who are born on 1 January 2005 and after. The announcement was not sudden but reached after months of discussion. Tsai also took a clue from Ukraine’s wholesale mobilisation to ward off a Russian invasion and decided to return to longer training periods for conscripts. Tsai’s decision on conscription is not new.

It dates back to 1949 when the Republic of China government relocated to Taiwan following the Chinese Civil War. At the end of the 20th century, all Taiwanese men aged 18 and over had to serve two to three years in the military as part of the country’s conscription system. After 2000, conscription was gradually reduced, limiting it to one year in 2008.

During the long Kuomintang administration under President Ma Ying-jeou which governed from 2008 to 2016, the government turned the nation’s military into a mainly voluntary force, with conscripts serving in support roles, serving military training only for four months starting in 2013.

Tsai would face many hurdles in the reintroduction of conscription as implementing the programme could be challenging given Taiwan’s lack of officers to train conscripts and lack of resources and facilities needed to expand training regimens.

The plan would entail universities to develop ways to make curricula more flexible so that conscripts can finish service while studying. Tsai justified the decision as difficult but inevitable as Taiwan’s survival is involved. Tsai is also looking to bolster Taiwan’s reservist system and would consider implementing a militia system.

Cognizant of the looming threat from China, Tsai strongly feels that Taiwan must prepare for war, and ensure that it can fight to prevent war or end it if one begins. The standard courses envisaged would focus on discipline, equipment maintenance, basic training and stress training, while physical training would include basic fitness, grenade throwing and a 500-metre obstacle course.

Physical training would incorporate science-based learning for health management and muscle-building. The arms training section would increase the number of shots fired from 104 to 160 to ensure that recruits know the differences between weapons and how firing positions affect accuracy.

Combat training is to focus on combat techniques, field medicine and what to do in the event of a biological or nuclear disaster, while the training regimen for recruits is to include marches, camp setting and other skills.

The American Institute in Taiwan (AIT) supported Tsai’s decision on extended conscription, saying that it underscores Taiwan’s commitment to self-defence and strengthens deterrence. The US also said Chinese drills near Taiwan, regardless of scale, have no impact on its support for Taiwan.

Viewed in the larger geopolitical context, it would be naive to think that the US would waver from its commitments under the Taiwan Relations Act and its “One China” policy, while at the same time lauding Taiwan’s resolve to maintain sufficient self-defence capability