Syrian rebel forces captured Damascus and forced President Bashar al-Assad to flee to Moscow with his family, where he has been granted refuge. In just over a week, the Hayat Tahir al-Sham (HTS), translated into ‘Organization for the liberation of the Levant,’ backed by Turkey, captured the cities of Aleppo, Hama and Homs, before entering Damascus and overthrowing a ruler who had managed to survive the Arab Spring by violently suppressing the agitation. This has thrown the entire region into a mess. The HTS, led by Ahmed al-Sharaa alias Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, was formerly associated with ISIS and subsequently with al Qaeda.

It is still considered a terrorist group by some Western nations. Interestingly, over the years while Turkey, Israel and the US militarily engaged with different Syrian groups including its armed forces, none ever targeted the HTS. Hoping to gain global acceptance, al-Jolani mentioned that he intends to focus on organized governance in Syria. By appointing Mohamad alBashir, the administrator of the earlier rebel-held territory, HTS conveyed its intent on governance. The HTS also reached out to Iraq and Lebanon seeking good ties and non-interference. Iran and Russia had propped up the al-Assad regime in Syria. Russia, involved in Ukraine, while Iran, internally divided amongst those desiring to support Assad and those opposing this, did not provide the requisite military power to face the HTS offensive. Hezbollah, which had earlier sent its soldiers to support the Syrian armed forces backed down due to Israel’s relentless military offensive against it. The weakened and underpaid Syrian army collapsed rapidly, in many cases discarding their arms and ammunition before fleeing.

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The end came quickly, bringing back memories of the collapse of the Saddam Hussain regime in Iraq battling the US, as also Afghan forces fighting the Taliban advance. Nations in the region have begun recalibrating their strategies. Israel, which is fighting Hamas and is presently in a ceasefire with Hezbollah has to now secure its Syrian border. The 1974 border agreement between Israel and Syria has ended, compelling Netanyahu to occupy beyond the buffer zone between the two states, which is the Golan Heights. It is unlikely to vacate them any time soon as the new Syrian government is militarily weak. Currently, Israel is targeting Syria’s military power including aircraft, ships, storage deports and air defence systems, ensuring these do not fall into the hands of the incoming HTS. Further, it would open doors for Israel to strike Syria freely in case it attempts to push terrorists into Israel.

Israel has to ensure that Syria is no longer capable of posing a threat. By occupying the Golan Heights, Israel has ensured that Damascus remains within range of its artillery. The HTS is a Sunni terrorist group, which fought against the Shia army of Bashar al-Assad, which was backed by Iran and Russia. Hence its ties with these countries are not conducive. The Iranian embassy in Damascus was ransacked in anger. The support which Syria provided to Hezbollah, including being a conduit for weapons from Iran has ended. A weakened Hezbollah, unable to obtain fresh weapon supplies from Iran, would no longer be the threat which it once was to Israel. Further, Syria is no longer a buffer between Iran and Israel, nor a member of the axis of resistance. This adds to the insecurities of Iran. Syrian airspace can be exploited by Israel to strike Iran.

Iran is hurriedly withdrawing members of its forces from Syria. There is a belief that Iran could be the next target for regime change. The only option for Iran to survive any onslaught from Israel and the US is to ensure development of nuclear weapons, a process which it would now be speeding up. Russia has two bases in Syria. The Khmeimim airbase houses Russian aircraft and the Tartus naval facility services Russian ships. The airbase is a staging post for Russian mercenaries travelling to Africa while Tartus is its only warm water port. Their future is unknown. Russia is reaching out to the new regime, seeking to continue with these facilities. Moscow’s alternate option is to move these bases to Tobruk in Libya where it is engaged in dialogue with Khalifa Haftar, a proRussia leader. While Russia supported the Assad regime, it faced lesser anger as compared to Iran, hence its assets remain secure and the embassy untouched.

At the end of the day, the fall of Assad is a loss of prestige for both Iran and Russia. Syria is currently far from stable. While Damascus may have fallen, there are other areas where the conflict rages, with both Turkey and the US supporting opposing factions. The Turkey-backed Syrian National Army, supported by Turkish air power, captured Manbij, held by US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces. The US maintains about a battalion strength in Kurdish-controlled oil drilling areas. Turkey considers the Kurds a threat and launches operations against them, while the US backs its Kurdish proxies engaging ISIS.

Turkey, which backed the HTS, would be hoping for a government closely aligned to it. This would enable it to move back over 3 million Syrian refugees on its soil. What is to be seen is whether the new Syrian regime toes the Turkish line or like the Afghan Taliban projects an independent stance. The photograph of Pakistan’s DG ISI having tea in a Kabul hotel to celebrate the arrival of the Taliban regime comes to mind. The US has been battling ISIS, taking advantage of the turmoil in Syria.

It regularly conducts airstrikes in the region. Whether it will continue to engage ISIS with the new Trump administration or pull out is a question. Most Western nations have stopped providing asylum to Syrian refugees, hoping for their return. Currently Yemen, Somalia and Afghanistan are controlled by terrorist groups. Syria is the latest to join this group. While Yemen and Somalia continue threatening the world in some form, the Taliban has confined itself to its own region. How Syria will play out is to be seen. Like the Taliban, the HTS could concentrate inwards for the moment. However, if pushed by Israel, as is happening between Pakistan and Afghanistan, there could be a change in its approach.

[The writer is a retired Major-General of the Indian Army]