Aam Aadmi Party leader Arvind Kejriwal’s decision to shun an alliance with the Congress for the upcoming Delhi assembly elections marks a significant turning point in the political landscape of the capital. While the move underscores AAP’s confidence in its political dominance, it also highlights the broader challenges faced by opposition forces in forging a united front against the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).

AAP’s rise in Delhi has been nothing short of transformative, systematically dismantling the Congress’s longstanding dominance. With two consecutive landslide victories in the 2015 and 2020 assembly elections, the party had cemented itself as the preferred choice for the capital’s electorate. By deciding to contest the 2025 assembly polls independently, Mr Kejriwal is signaling his belief in AAP’s ability to stand on its own, bolstered by its belief that its brand of governance will carry the day. This decision also appears to be a calculated response to the Congress’s stance in other states, particularly Haryana, where it denied AAP any seat-sharing arrangement in recent elections.

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Mr Kejriwal’s rejection of a tie-up in Delhi is both a demonstration of political reciprocity and a statement of AAP’s ambition to remain a dominant player in the INDIA bloc alliance at least as far as the national capital is concerned. For the Congress, this development underscores its existential crisis in Delhi. Reduced to irrelevance over the past decade, the party had hoped that an alliance with AAP would provide it with a lifeline. However, its inability to reclaim voter confidence or build a compelling narrative against the BJP and AAP has left it struggling to maintain relevance. The recent padyatras aimed at reviving grassroots support may raise visibility but are unlikely to translate into significant electoral gains.

Mr Kejriwal’s decision has implications beyond AAP and Congress dynamics. By rejecting an alliance, AAP risks fragmenting the opposition vote, a scenario that could benefit the BJP. In constituencies where Congress still retains a modest voter base, a three-way contest may provide the BJP with an advantage. For AAP, this gamble places added pressure to consolidate its base while countering growing criticism over governance and controversies such as the excise policy case. Strategically, this move positions AAP as a self-reliant force that is unafraid to challenge traditional political players. However, the absence of a united opposition in Delhi underscores a broader issue within the INDIA bloc: the difficulty of managing egos and balancing ambitions among its members.

While the BJP enjoys the advantage of a centralised leadership and organisational discipline, the opposition’s inability to present a cohesive front remains a glaring weakness. Ultimately, Mr Kejriwal’s solo run in Delhi reflects both confidence and caution. It is a high-stakes gamble that may pay off only if AAP successfully navigates the challenges ahead. However, the fractured opposition landscape could leave the BJP as the ultimate beneficiary, reshaping the capital’s political narrative once again.