Losing parties always insist that by-elections are not a national referendum, and the BJP taking that line is a more telling admission of the reverse it has suffered than the actual tally of losing 11 of the 14 Lok Sabha and Assembly contests earlier in the week.

One major take-away is the party’s inability to withstand the assault when “secular” opponents rise above internal differences to ensure one-on-one fights. Another being confirmation of the political incompetence of the party’s handpicked man in Lucknow.

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With Kairana adding to the defeats in Gorakhpur and Phulpur, Yogi Adityanath has been exposed and the BJP will do well not to field him in campaigns beyond the “heartland” where Hindutva has but limited allure.

That the party was also defeated in the Assembly poll in Noorpur only underscores its increasing disenchantment with the voter in a state which traditionally tilts the national balance.

Self-incriminating is the BJPs explanation that Mr Narendra Modi hardly campaigned in UP ~ it testifies to its skewed belief that electoral success need not be followed up by good governance. And this time around its famed micro-management came unstuck, giving Ajit Singh’s gasping RLD a chance to bounce back into political contention.

Tie-ups between the SP and BSP in UP are beginning to assume formidable proportions. So much so that the Congress is making overtures to Mayawati for Rajasthan. For the rest, it has been a rather mixed bag, with the Congress, JMM, NCP, RJD, Trinamul, LDF etc picking up the spoils, leaving the Modi-Shah combine only the residue ~ and having to seek consolation in having picked up an enhanced voteshare, or forcing someone else into third place.

The Congress has proved it still has potential, it won in Punjab and Karnataka but Rahul Gandhi can hardly take credit for that. The JMM has reaffirmed its local credentials. It would be premature and naïve to extrapolate the latest polls into trend-setters for 2019, but signals have been flashed.

The cocky BJP has to try and gets its state governments to really work, instead of resting on sloganeering-laurels and thinking that the Modi-magic will always work ~ it failed to do the trick in Karnataka.

The break-up with the Shiv Sena is not proving costly, but Sharad Pawar’s NCP has gained a little ground, and Mamata Banerjee retains her grip over West Bengal. Still, a “third front” remains more of a possibility rather than a probability: who will lead it? Mamata’s “Dilli Chalo” call will not go down very well ~ not even with new-found friend Arvind Kejriwal.

The inclusion/ exclusion of the Congress from a front will remain problematic. The struggle of the JD(S) and Congress to craft a bouquet in the Garden City is ominous ~ not everyone will be as unashamedly power-hungry as HD Kumarswamy as to accept being at the “Congress’ mercy”.