As they approach the festive season, citizens of West Bengal and Delhi have been warned that they are on the cusp of severe spikes in the incidence of Covid-19.

The warning issued by Dr Sukumar Mukherjee, physician and member of the Global Advisory Board formed by Chief Minister Mamata Mukherjee is stark ~ he says West Bengal should prepare for a “tsunami” of infections as political rallies that have gathered force in recent days with the Bhartiya Janata Party in the forefront, prePuja shopping and irresponsible crowd movements will together create a situation where those with moderate and severe respiratory distress may even die in their homes.

In Delhi, a report of the National Centre of Disease Control has warned that the onset of winter and the associated drop in air quality, together with the incidence of festival season crowds, may lead to a spike in cases to up to 15,000 a day, putting a strain on health resources.

While there are at least perfunctory measures in place in Delhi to ensure that some safety measures are adopted ~ for instead, levy of fines on those not wearing masks is now common at many places ~ the situation is much worse in Bengal and especially its urban areas where large crowds, often unmasked and disdainful of distancing norms, are seen thronging marketplaces.

The Puja spirit having permeated the air, caution has been thrown to the winds and the administration appears to be fighting an uphill battle against a citizenry that is determined to embrace danger. These are worrying signs, and the warning issued by Dr Mukherjee must be viewed in context. If people are made to wait two or three days for a bed in the Intensive Care Unit of private hospitals now, as he has said, the situation may well become unmanageable if the post-Puja case load escalates to the extent he fears.

The government, he says, has been advised to increase the number of ICU beds exponentially, and we can only hope it is able to do so in the time available. Delhi has thus far succeeded in managing its case load quite efficiently, by asking only the most severe patients to seek admission to hospitals. But if the NCDC prognosis is correct, not only will cases increase, the intensity of those with more severe distress will do so as well, which will mean greater pressure on hospitals.

Additionally, with restrictions on inter-state movement having been removed, Delhi can expect more patients from neighbouring states to seek treatment in its hospitals. The administrations in both West Bengal and Delhi must prepare themselves better for the coming weeks and months. Experts can, at best, warn administrations; the onus is on administrators to ensure that the worst does not come to pass.