President Vladimir Putin at the Annual Valdai In- ternational Discussion Club meeting held on 5 October 2023 made a long spee- ch reflecting on the present con- flict in Ukraine and other inter- national concerns. On the key question of Ukraine, he reminded the audi- ence that the war did not start in 2022 but in 2014 wherein a legal government was overthrown and an illegal nationalist govern- ment was installed. This government later res- urrected Nazism, a nefarious ideology that developed in Ger- many in the 1930s and 1940s, and entered into an agreement with the EU in February 2014 overturning an earlier one that was there with the Russian Fed- eration, Ukraine’s largest trad- ing partner. Putin also reminded that the West did not honour a solemn commitment made to Gorbachev that there would be no eastward expansion of NATO and that he as early as 2008 had warned the West that any further expansion of NATO to include Ukraine and Georgia would be tantamount to cross- ing the red line. The two Minsk agreements guaranteed by France and Ger- many had secured a mandate of the Security Council but were not honoured and the process of rearming the Ukrainian defence forces by NATO encouraged it to launch brutal wars of annihila- tion in the east Ukrainian Russ- ian-speaking areas. This was resisted by local militias and assisted by Russia. The latter also occupied Crimea that led to severe sanctions by NATO countries causing major setbacks to the Russian econo- my and suffering of its people. Putin also mentioned the recent reception of a Nazi veter- an by the Canadian parliament which was an example of the vast difference between public utterances and vicious private dealings of Western countries. The US is accustomed to bullying smaller powers but in Ukraine though it is at the centre of the conflict yet it cannot show a single instance of success. The number of Ukrainian soldiers dead and maimed is colossal. In fact, the entry point of recruitment of Ukrainian armed forces is 40 years now which shows a substantial number of young people are either dead in the conflict or have fled the country. Added to this is the fact that a huge number of Western- supplied tanks and other sophis- ticated armaments have been destroyed and now the major Western powers are facing an acute shortage of replacing them. Putin asserted that the objective of the operation was not to grab territory as Russia being the largest nation of the world with enormous natural and human resources has no reason to expand. The prime reason was to provide security to Ukrainian Russians as a genocide was being carried out against them without any concern for their basic human rights. Ukraine’s NATO membership also would not be accepted at any cost. Post 1991, Ukraine was developing proper- ly until the US sup- ported the Maidan coup of 2014 which seriously violated the rights and security of Rus- sians in Ukraine. Their culture, life and language were threatened by the Ukrainian army and the militias. The deliberate non-implementa- tion of the Minsk agreements creat- ed a situation that made peace- ful resolution by diplomacy impossible. Protecting fellow Russians was a prime national obligation and now the Ukrain- ian Russians are not a defence- less minority in Ukraine but can lead a life of fulfilment as Russ- ian citizens. Dimitry Medvedev, a former president of Russia and a close confidant of Putin analysed the address in detail. Putin was deliberately ambiguous and careful in his speech. He was confident that the West had over-invested in Ukraine and was running out of steam. The aim of intervention was not to help Ukraine but to weak- en Russia. In contrast, the Russ- ian aim was limited to protect- ing the concerns of Ukrainian Russians as their rights were constantly violated in Ukraine. There was no possibility of a ceasefire, freeze or cold peace. Russia was not soliciting any negotiation since it had a blue- print of its own and would pur- sue its aims until these were ful- filled. One of the major purposes was to protect the Black Sea which falls under the Russian sphere. The outcome of the pre- sent conflict has larger ramifica- tions since its consequences would not be confined to Europe alone. It is a turning point in building an enduring Eurasian solidarity as it would strengthen the Asiatic roots of a Russian civ- ilizational state and also incor- porate a larger canvas that would include central Asia, China, India, and Africa. The Russian policy is in total contrast to that of the West’s past colo- nial and present neo-colonial policies. Russia does not have any baggage of colonialism and need not be exploitative as it possesses enormous natural resources. If the US is exception- al, so is Russia. The Western civilization is one of the many contemporary ones and its paternalistic pres- ence is waning. Even a Western- sponsored G20 reflects an increased pres- ence of the non- western nations. The insatiable acquisitiveness of the West is the prime cause for the present inter- national tension and conflict. Rus- sia is opposed to these unhealthy practices and hen- ce is projected as a villain when it is actually a victim. The Russian endeavour is to build a stable world order with a concert of great powers which would eliminate foreign inter- vention and ensure a harmo- nious world order. With no power threatening anyone else, there would be no design for regime change or forced occu- pation. In a nutshell it affirms the 1648 Westphalian state sys- tem which has helped to sustain a peaceful and prosperous Europe for a considerable peri- od. The ambiguous Western ad- vocacy of a rules-based interna- tional order is unjust and only a clearly defined international law and adherence to the UN charter can effectively regulate interna- tional affairs. Medvedev reminds that Ukraine fits into the model of a Russian civilizational state because of its affinity to culture, language, and religion. Once the present conflict is over both would have an enduring rela- tionship. Otherwise, Ukraine would cease to exist as a state. The Russian economy is stable without the inherent turbulence unleashed by Western capital- ism. Its nuclear power is formi- dable and can hit any corner of the world. The Armenian problem was a making of its own as it refused to acknowledge military reality and acceptance of a Putin pro- posal that would have been rati- fied by Azerbaijan with autho- rization by the Security Council. Volodymyr Zelenskky, the Ukrai- nian President, did not respond to earlier proposals for negotia- tions as he believed falsely that Ukraine would emerge victori- ous. His overconfidence has cre- ated a situation where every Ukrainian family has been ad- versely affected by the war. For saving the country and ending the war, Ukraine must realize that this is a war of attri- tion and the present new fron- tiers are unchangeable. Ukraine will have to accept Russian war objectives and to avoid a catast- rophic end must address the se- curity concerns of the Russian federation. It must realize that in the real-world options are alw- ays limited and it does not have the population and time to pur- sue a longer conflict. With total dependence on the US, Zelen- skky is terrified to meet his own people. A deep Ukrainian state with control by the extreme right tries to perpetuate an endless war without any realistic plan to end it. The Grenada meeting of the European political community and EU leaders discussed EU’s future strategy on 5 and 6 Octo- ber 2023. It did not yield any consen- sus and opposition within the EU had taken the shape of a for- midable group with Hungary, Poland and Slovakia not follow- ing Brussels’ diktat. Zelenskky returned a shattered man and demoralized leader from Grena- da who had nothing to show to his people. The US safeguards its own interests and forces a reluc- tant Europe to toe its line to Europe’s detriment. Medvedev is of the view that a new world order is emerging in which Rus- sia along with China and India would play key roles. Ukraine, unlike the Russian army, does not have the skills or the train- ing to fight in severe wintry con- ditions. If the war continues Ukraine’s misery would multi- ply. The Putin-Medvedev asser- tion is well within the Primakov doctrine formulated after the disintegration of the Soviet Uni- on and the emergence of a uni- polar world. With the rise of Chi- na and the relative decline of the US, Russia is now calling for a re- adjustment of the contemporary world system with its unsto- ppable move from unipolarity to multipolarity. With a formidable nuclear arsenal and a veto in the Security Council, Russia wants to build an alternative in the in- ternational arena with an exten- ded BRICS and support from the Global South. Its position on the Palestine issue supported by Brazil and in opposition to the US is a clear indication of this shift.

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