With six of the seven phases of the Lok Sabha polls complete, the election is proving to be far more strategically complex than initially expected. The BJP, led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, has enjoyed a dominant position over the past decade but has faced a recent challenge from the newly formed INDIA bloc, a coalition of opposition parties led by the Congress. Despite the optimism surrounding the INDIA bloc, and the public pronouncements of a defeat for the BJP, insiders privately admit that even if the Opposition does better than its wildest expectations, it will not able to unseat the Prime Minister for he will be the leader of the largest single party, and thus the first to be invited to form a government. Of course, the BJP scoffs at such a hypothesis, stating confidently that it will do as well, if not better than it did in 2019.

The BJP’s strength lies not only in its own numbers but also in its ability to form alliances. Thus, even if it does not cross the majority threshold, a possibility its supporters dismiss, it will not take very long to find new allies to add to those it already has. The INDIA bloc’s strategy will hinge on not just increasing the seat count for Congress but also ensuring that its regional allies perform well. The Congress’s performance will be critical, as it needs to significantly improve its 2019 tally to strengthen the opposition’s bid. While Congress will not emerge as the single largest party, it will hope that its strong regional allies will shore up the numbers. The litmus test for Congress will be its ability to mobilise the INDIA bloc, maintain coalition unity, and prevent defections to the BJP, all of which is easier said than done.

Of course, all that will be relevant only if the Congress is able to at least double its 2019 numbers. Opposition insiders admit a fractured mandate, where no party or pre-poll coalition secures a clear majority, would lead to intense political manoeuvring and the BJP, with its larger single-party count, would have an advantage in such a scenario. While the INDIA bloc will hope to have a fighting chance, the battle will be far from straightforward. The BJP is and will remain a formidable force with significant political acumen in alliance-building. The outcome of this political manoeuvring will ultimately hinge on the ability, or lack thereof, of the INDIA bloc to consolidate its position and effectively challenge the BJP’s dominance. While the Opposition may believe it has acquired some political muscle, the BJP under the Prime Minister is a very strong adversary; not a party that will roll over and give up