The recent bye-poll results for 30 Assembly and three Lok Sabha seats spread over 14 states are a mixed bag for the two national parties – the BJP and the Congress. Senior Congress leader P Chidambaram has noted that the results show “the honours are even” between the BJP and the opposition parties.

But both have to improve their chances in the upcoming Assembly elections in half a dozen states including Uttar Pradesh early next year. The byepolls indicate the trend for the upcoming elections Significantly, the BJP and its allies won 13 Assembly seats, while the Congress bagged eight out of 30 seats.

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The regional parties have done well as voters preferred the ruling parties in the states except for Himachal Pradesh. West Bengal chief minister Mamata Banerjee excelled, bagging all the seats. The BJP is concerned about the losses in Himachal Pradesh, West Bengal, Rajasthan, Karnataka, and Maharashtra.

While the party could pat itself on the back for the sweep in Assam, Madhya Pradesh Telangana, and the Northeast, the alarm bells are ringing because of its losses in Himachal Pradesh and West Bengal. The Congress can hope to recover in the northern Indian states but the work will have to be done in the north-eastern belt where the party once ruled all eight states at one point.

It is clear that wherever there are strong chief ministers, they have done well. Examples are Ashok Gehlot in Rajasthan, Himanta Biswa Sarma in Assam, and Shivraj Singh Chauhan in Madhya Pradesh. Himachal Pradesh chief minister Jairam Thakur and Karnataka chief minister Basavraj Bommai have shown weak leadership.

Taking the lead from late Prime Minister Indira Gandhi, the BJP High command had been experimenting with changing chief ministers often. Uttarakhand has seen three changes already, and it is going for polls early next year.

The same is the case in Himachal Pradesh. The party most likely will change chief ministers where they have not performed. As shown by Gehlot, Congress leader Rahul Gandhi has to learn the lesson that sticking to a strong chief minister ultimately benefits the party.

Secondly, the BJP and Congress face internal rivalry, factionalism, and indiscipline in some states. In Rajasthan, the BJP lost mainly due to the internal fight between former chief minister Vasundhara Raje and the State party leadership.

The BJP can no longer ignore Vasundhara Raje’s potential for sabotage and find a way out sooner rather than later. In Himachal Pradesh also it needs to pull up its socks. The party also has to find a way to deal with the chief ministers of Karnataka and Himachal Pradesh. Changing them once again cannot be the way out.

As for the Congress, Rahul and Priyanka Gandhi’s plan to replace Gehlot will have to be deferred as the chief minister has got a breather. With his performance in the byepolls, they cannot touch him immediately. Or else they will face a Punjab-like situation where removing Captain Amarinder Singh forced him to launch a politicaloutfit supported by the BJP, thus adding to the Congress’ headaches.

With four months for the polls, this seemed an ill-advised move. Traditionally, the ruling party wins bye-elections – this theory held good in Bengal, M.P., Maharashtra, Rajasthan, Andhra Pradesh, Bihar and Assam.

West Bengal chief minister Mamata Banerjee has shown a spectacular performance, and it is indeed an act of sweet revenge on the BJP, which went all out in the recent Assembly polls against her. But in Karnataka, H.P. and Telengana, this theory did not hold. There are many reasons for the mixed results.

There was anger among the voters about the rising petrol prices, inflation, mishandling of Covid, continuing farmers’ agitation and the ordinary person’s disenchantment with the BJP which was responsible for its reverses. It is good that the Modi Government quickly responded by reducing fuel prices and got its state governments to follow suit.

The Congress is patting itself on back for a good showing, but it should not become complacent as half a dozen states are going to the polls early next. The bye-poll results will impact results of the upcoming Assembly polls and the 2024 Lok Sabha polls.

The high commands in both the BJP and the Congress will have to take immediate steps for correction and also change their style of functioning. The Gandhi siblings, too, should learn the value of the old guard and remember to be patient. The real signal that emerges from the results is that a good captain in states as well as at the Centre safeguards the interests of the party.