The two major political parties – the ruling BJP and the main opposition Congress – are struggling to enforce their writ on two incumbent chief ministers of Punjab (Congress) and Karnataka (BJP). Both are septuagenarians. The top leadership in both parties is looking for younger leaders to replace them. At the same time, the two regional satraps refuse to give way. Punjab is going to the polls next year and Karnataka in 2023.

Both had been summoned by their respective high commands to discuss the leadership issue last week. The Gandhis came out with a formula that was not acceptable to chief minister Captain Amarinder Singh. Though reluctantly, he nodded his head. Yediyurappa is still negotiating conditions. The Congress high command’s decision to appoint former cricketer Navjot Sidhu as Pradesh Congress President has not ended the political crisis in the state. It is only a temporary truce.

The Congress is still living in its past glory and has not realised that it has new aspirational leaders. Sidhu, Sachin Pilot and other younger leaders are examples of this new Congress. They do not want to wait their turn. Secondly, there is a leadership crisis at the top. Sonia Gandhi is continuing as interim president since August 2019. Thirdly, it is a weakened Congress that has lost power at the Centre and in many states where it ruled earlier.

Fourthly, it is a demoralised Congress where workers are clueless about what is happening. That is why opportunistic leaders are leaving the party to join the BJP. In 2017, the party won a solid 77 seats under the leadership of the Captain in Punjab. The SAD-BJP alliance only managed to secure 18 seats. The AAP won 20 seats. In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the Congress won eight of the 13 seats, with a vote share of 40.12 per cent. The BJP and SAD managed to secure only two seats each, while the AAP won one seat.

So the Captain has a good record. Gone are the days when even a strong state leader could be armtwisted and made to fall in line. The Gandhi siblings are under the misconception that they can run the party as their grandmother did. While the Captain has established himself in the government and party, Sidhu’s showmanship and the touting of his closeness to the Gandhi siblings are untested.

Appointing Sidhu as PCC chief would make him a contender for CM. There’s no guarantee that the competing factions will work unitedly in the election. It is a similar case in Karnataka as the BJP leadership wants to replace B.S. Yediyurappa. The sectional quarrels continue to hurt the state unit. The RSS is also said to be unhappy with him. Each time he has become the chief minister, he has not completed a full term.

He took over as the chief minister for the fourth time in July 2019 after engineering defections of 18 MLAs from Congress and the Janata Dal (S). By then, he had already crossed 76 years. There is criticism that he allows his family members a free hand to meddle with his administration. The chief minister has been grooming his second son B.Y Vijayendra as his political heir; presently he is the state unit vice president. Yeddyurappa, who is completing two years in office on July 26, was summoned to Delhi last week.

He has been told that he has to step down. The contours of how and when to relieve him of office are being worked out. Yediyurappa has been an exception to the unwritten rule in the BJP of keeping out those above 75 years from elective office. Meanwhile, the wily chief minister has drummed up support from his caste and religious leaders.

The Lingayat mutt heads have come in open support of Yediyurappa. Out of the 224 assembly seats in Karnataka, over 100 are dominated by the Lingayats. The community’s support is thus one of the key deciding factors for any party’s victory. The BJP’s central leadership is fully aware that nudging Yediyurappa to step down will be difficult. He has the potential to wreak havoc in the party – as he had demonstrated when removed as chief minister in 2010.

However, the BJP high command is clear that with his advancing age, and inept handling of the Covid situation, he is becoming more of a liability than an asset. For the BJP, Karnataka is the first state it won in the South, and it has not been able to find a foothold in the other southern states. For Congress, Punjab is one of the few states it is ruling at present. With a fragmented opposition, the Captain might swing the state for the party if he is not disturbed.