As kingmakers Chandrababu Naidu and Nitish Kumar commit their respective parties, Telugu Desam Party and Janata Dal (United), to support a third term for the National Democratic Alliance under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the political landscape in India is once again at a crucial juncture. Both leaders have emerged as pivotal figures, ensuring the continuation of the NDA government after the BJP fell short of an absolute majority. The political buzz is rife with speculation about the conditions and concessions the duo might demand in exchange for their support.

Historically, the BJP’s approach towards its NDA allies has been characterised by a strategic manoeuvring that often leaves its partners weakened. This “use, weaken, and throw” strategy involves leveraging the electoral strength of regional allies to establish a foothold, only to gradually undermine and out-compete them. This tactic has been witnessed across various states and with multiple regional parties, making the stance of Mr Naidu and Mr Kumar fraught with risk. Take the example of the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) in Assam. Initially, the BJP piggybacked on AGP to topple the Congress-led government.

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However, over time, the AGP’s influence waned as the BJP absorbed its voter base and expanded its own. Similarly, in Nagaland, the Naga People’s Front (NPF) was instrumental in giving the BJP a foothold, only to see its power erode as the BJP-supported Nationalist Democratic Progressive Party (NDPP) gained prominence. The Shiv Sena in Maharashtra, a long-standing ally, faced a significant split as the BJP appropriated its core identity and voter base, resulting in a weakened faction. Mr Naidu and Mr Kumar must navigate these waters with caution. Both leaders have previously experienced the ramifications of aligning too closely with the BJP. Mr Naidu’s earlier fallout with the NDA was marked by unfulfilled promises and subsequent political marginalisation, while Mr Kumar’s periodic exits and re-entries into the NDA fold highlight his struggle to balance regional ambitions with the alliance’s overarching goals. The TDP and JD (U) leaders are likely to extract significant concessions for their support, ranging from key ministerial portfolios to specific policy commitments. However, the long-term sustainability of their political relevance under an NDA government remains uncertain.

The BJP’s track record suggests that once the need for these allies diminishes, efforts by the party to consolidate and expand its own base at their expense could resume. Moreover, the BJP’s strategy of “divide and rule” poses an additional threat. By fostering internal dissent and encouraging splits within allied parties, the BJP has managed to weaken its partners further. The cases of the AIADMK in Tamil Nadu and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) in Maharashtra exemplify how internal divisions, often fanned by external pressures, can significantly diminish a party’s influence and cohesion. As Mr Naidu and Mr Kumar embark on this political alliance, they must be acutely aware of these historical precedents. They will be aware, astute politicians that they are, that immediate political gains should not overshadow the long-term implications for their partie