More than 2,500 years ago, Lord Buddha spoke of ‘impermanence’ or anitya in Sanskrit. For the sage, it was one of the three marks of conditioned existence, which without exception are “transient, evanescent, inconstant”; all temporal things, whether material or mental, are compounded objects in a continuous change of condition, subject to decline and destruction, taught the Buddha.
This is also true for politics, though in this sphere, things seem to move faster than in other realms.
Take Prime Minister Narendra Modi. For several years, he was the devil incarnate; he was a ‘criminal’; no name was bad enough to define the Chief Minister of Gujarat; it went so far that several foreign embassies in India forbade their diplomats to undertake projects in Gujarat or even visit the State.
Calculated in political eons, this was long ago.
Today, foreign Heads of State or Government are rushing to the Indian State to do business with Vibrant Gujarat. According to the MEA, the Global Summit saw the participation of the President of Kenya, Uhuru Kenyatta, the President of Rwanda, Paul Kagame, the Prime Minister of Portugal, Antonio Costa, the Prime Minister of Serbia, Aleksandar Vucic, the Deputy PM of Russia, Dmitry Rogozin, the Deputy PM of Poland, Piotr Glinski, the French foreign minister, Jean Marc Ayrault, the economy minister of Japan, Hiroshige Seko, and delegations from many other countries.
I remember speaking to the Ambassador of one of the countries mentioned (not France), who swore that his country would never set foot in Modi’s state.
But the past is the past.
It must have been pleasing, not to say a sweet revenge, for the Indian Prime Minister to ‘receive’ so many dignitaries. Take the example of France; Jean-Marc Ayrault, the French Minister of Foreign Affairs and International Development came with a 147-member French delegation to attend the Global Summit. A French communiqué said: “Reflecting its prominent position among leading foreign investors in India, France, a Partner Country of the Summit, is committed to partnering with the Government of India and the Government of Gujarat.”
Even a Nobel Laureate, Serge Haroche, expert in atomic physics, quantum optics, and laser spectroscopy, participated in the Nobel Laureates Conclave. How this will make Gujarat vibrate is not clear, but it is more symbolic of the new world’s state of mind vis-a-vis India and Modi in particular.
The central focus of the Summit being “Sustainable Economic and Social Development”, the French delegation was said to have expertise in energy, power, urban development, water and waste management, aviation and logistics, agrifood industry, multimodal transport, IT and communications, planning, housing, industry (biotechnology, ceramic and metallic coatings, dental, electronics, pharmaceuticals, textile), consulting, and banking and finance. Can you believe it?
I however wonder whether the delegates really understand Modi’s ‘Make in India’ vision? It is a billion rupee question. And the foreign delegates should remember that the Gujaratis are among the best businesspersons of the world, can they be a match?
I am not too sure that whether they are African, Russian, Portuguese or French, the delegates to the Summit realise what ‘Make in India’ means. This type of new partnership means ‘sharing’ the best technologies they have.
But let us hope for the best.
Launched in 2003, the Vibrant Gujarat Global Summit aims at attracting investment in the state, but the foreign delegates should not forget that Modi’s India is not the same country as in the 1980s or 1990s.
ISRO will soon launch PSLV C 37, (Polar Satellite Launch Vehicle) which should lift three big and 100 small satellites in a single mission off from Sriharikota. A world record.
The PSLV is to carry one satellite of the Cartosat series and two small ISRO satellites and 100 smaller commercial satellites, many for the US.
The Summit was not ‘business’ only, it was also the occasion for high politics. With the world scene in global flux, particularly after the arrival of a new US President, Modi made sure to use the forum to discuss politics, especially when he met Dimitri Rogozin, the Russian deputy prime minister (himself accompanied by a large business delegation).
The talks between the two were crucial as it was the first high level encounter between India and Russia after Putin’s visit to India last October. It was also an occasion for Delhi to get clarifications from Moscow whose position on the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (cutting across the Indian territory in POK) has been ambiguous, with Beijing and Islamabad trying to lure the Russians into the mega scheme.
In a first stage, Russia said that it was interested in participating in the activities of the port of Gwadar, but later the information was denied.
Indrani Bagchi wrote in The Times of India: “if Russia enhances its relations with Pakistan, particularly in the defence sector, India would take a very different set of measures, which could even include reducing its buy of Russian weaponry. Indian officials say they understand Russia is looking for new markets for its weapons but selling to Pakistan should not be among them. In the past few months, Russia, which, despite poor economic ties or popular exchanges has been a favourite of Indian governments, has faced unprecedented criticism from Indians.”
The other issue is the uncertainty about Donald Trump’s stand on US-Russia relations. The new President is bound to have more ‘normal’ relations with Vladimir Putin than his predecessor who was obsessed about real or imaginary interference from Moscow on American soil, forgetting that in the past, the Chinese have harmed the US interests many times more than the Russians (in hacking for example). What will Trump tweet next on Russia?
It would certainly be a good thing for India (and for America) to balance Moscow’s dependence on Beijing, in the Middle East crisis and elsewhere.
Though the French Foreign Minister met Modi during the Global Summit, the attention-grabbing news concerning French diplomacy in the changed times, came from another side of the globe. Three French MPs, one of them associated with Francois Fillon, who in a few months has good chances to be the next French President, met Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Though Fillon’s campaign manager denied sending Thierry Mariani, one of the MPs, it is clear that this heralds radical changes in the months to come on this front too. Mariani said that Assad told him that he was willing to negotiate with rebel groups fighting against his government, with the exception of the ‘jihadist’ organizations.
According to Mariani, Assad was “optimistic and ready for reconciliation with them on the condition that they lay down their arms”. Further, he was ready to negotiate ‘on everything’ during the forthcoming talks in Astana, Kazakhstan, brokered by Russia and Turkey.
Apart from the MPs, a group of French journalists from France Info, LCP and RTL television interviewed the Syrian President: “We don’t consider it [retaking Aleppo from the rebels] as a victory. The victory will be when you get rid of all the terrorists,” said Assad.
Asked about heavy bombing raids that ravaged the city and claimed large numbers of civilian lives, Assad told the French journalists: “But you have to liberate, and this is the price sometimes.”
Apart from the fate of ‘global’ business, Year 2017 is bound to witness a sea of changes on the international scene. World leaders, whether they are Chinese, Russian, French or American will have to learn to live with Anitya.

(The writer is an expert on China-Tibet relations and author of  Fate of Tibet.)

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