This is not the era of war” is what Prime Minister Modi had told Russian President Vladimir Putin on 16 September at the summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) at Samarkand, Uzbekistan. The statement made western countries like America and France erupt in rapture. Further, reversing its earlier position of abstaining from voting at the UN on resolutions against Russia, India has voted twice ~ in August and September ~ for allowing Ukrainian President Zelensky to address the UN General Assembly (UNGA) virtually.

On 23 September, while addressing the UNGA, India’s External Affairs Minister Mr S Jaishankar articulated India’s position before world leaders in the most unambiguous terms. With Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov looking on, he said, “As the Ukraine conflict continues to rage, we are often asked whose side we are on. And our answer, each time, is straight and honest. India is on the side of peace and will remain firmly there. We are on the side that respects the UN Charter and its founding principles. We are on the side that calls for dialogue and diplomacy as the only way out.” Before ending his address, he reiterated: “We believe and advocate that this is not an era of war or of conflict. On the contrary, it is a time for development and for cooperation…let us strive to return to the course of seeking peace, progress and prosperity.” All these elated the Western countries, which have not concealed their disappointment at India’s continued purchase of Russian oil at a discounted price even though they themselves have been buying Russian energy while continuing to arm Ukraine. They took these statements as indicative of a final shift of India’s position vis-à-vis Russia, reckoning this as India’s gradual coming out of the Russian orbit to begin its Western slide.

India may have enough reasons to disentangle itself from Russia’s orbit, even while not embracing the West with undue warmth at this stage, but the truth is that the West is misinterpreting India’s position. Ever since the Ukraine war began, it has been India’s consistent position in all fora that war and violence must give way to negotiation and peace. Further, India has always pursued an independent foreign policy and hence stayed away from the economic sanctions imposed by Western countries, these not being in our national interest. India asserted that actions such as buying Russian oil at a discounted price were in its own national interest, which is supreme, and reminded the West that it did not stop buying oil and gas from Russia despite imposing economic sanctions on it. Indeed, from a negligible 0.02 per cent, India’s purchase of Russian oil increased to 10 per cent of total oil imports ~ nearly 4 lakh barrels a day ~ in April 2022, and further to more than a million barrels in June-July. The deep discounts offered by Russia helped India to save Rs 35,000 crore to alleviate the economic distress caused by Russia’s war. The PM and the EAM are only articulating India’s age-old position that there is no substitute for peace, and it is in keeping with this stance that India had earlier called for an international investigation into the killing of civilians at Bucha allegedly by the retreating Russians. But India’s recent overtures at Samarkand and the UN certainly do not imply that India is just about ready to dump Russia. Despite Indian nervousness about the bloody Russian invasion, India has many reasons for keeping the relationship alive and strong ~ oil is only one of these. We still depend heavily on Russian weaponry. But even though Russia was our largest supplier of arms till 2011, since then the share of Russian weapons in India’s arsenal has shrunk by almost 50 per cent as India started diversifying its defence procurements. Today India buys its arms heavily from France, USA, UK and Israel and is tying up with other countries to make them in India.

In the wake of the war, India has stalled further military procurements from Russia, including 21 new MiG-29 fighters for which India is encouraging domestic production. The protracted war is raising genuine concerns about Russia’s production capabilities too after meeting its own demands, not to speak of the chronic delays that have always plagued the supply of military hardware and spares by Russia. Delivery of two Talwar-class stealth frigates has already been delayed by over six months. There have also been delays for the S400 Triumf missile systems as well as spares for Kilo-class submarines, MiG-29 fighters and Kamov Mi-17 military transport helicopters.

The recent mobilisation of 3 lakh conscripts ordered by Mr Putin, a much-diminished leader after the reverses suffered at the hands of a progressively well-armed Ukraine, will mean further constraints upon Russian supplies, making it an unreliable arms supplier. But there are more worrying concerns now, given the weaknesses of the Russian arsenal which the war in Ukraine has exposed, where Russian arms and missiles have often malfunctioned. These concerns will only continue to heighten, given the crippling sanctions imposed by the technologically advanced West upon which Russia depends for much of its inputs for defence manufacturing.

Sanctions have severely restricted the sources of semiconductor chips and sophisticated electronic components critical for the manufacture of cutting-edge arms and equipment systems for which Russia has no indigenous fabrication capability. Even if it manages to source these components from third parties, this will eventually be tracked by Western surveillance intelligence and be stopped, leaving Russia with no option but to procure them from China which had declared Russia as a friend without limits, in which case India will have reasons to be wary of such equipment that will allow Chinese chips to enter India’s fighting machinery. This makes it imperative for India to reduce its dependence on Russian arms. Once India and Russia were considered natural partners. It was Russia that always supported India’s cause in the Security Council when the USA and the West were not exactly our friends. But that natural partnership has long since ceased to exist.

In 2021, India’s trade with Russia was worth $13 billion, compared to $157 billion with the USA. Hardly 30,000 Indians live in Russia, compared to more than 4 million in the USA. Russia was India’s most important strategic ally in the past, now it is the USA, Australia, Japan and Western Europe. Further Russia’s closeness to China is threatening India’s economic and security interests in Central Asia, which was once fostered by India’s friendship with the Soviet Union and gave India privileged access to the energy-rich “stans” ~ Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Kyrgyzstan. It was also Russia that had lobbied for India’s inclusion in the SCO which is dominated by China. China wields wide influence over Central Asia and being its largest economic partner, benefits hugely from its energy resources.

Given the increasing Chinese influence over Russian policy, India will lose its heft in Central Asia. Even Russia’s support in the Security Council cannot be taken for granted: China is likely to influence how a weakened Russia will vote ~ after all, their unlimited friendship is one not of equals. It is time India starts slowly decoupling from Russia. Such a shift is probably already underway, even though the India-Russia relationship is likely to remain strong for some more years, especially when our diplomacy seems to be failing in the neighbourhood.

Sri Lanka, despite receiving US$3.8 billion in assistance from India ~ compared to a pittance of US$74 million from China, its biggest debtor, allowed the ballistic missile and satellite-tracking ship Yuan Wang-5 to dock at Hambantota port overruling India’s concerns, that too only a day after India had gifted the Lankan Air Force a Dornier aircraft for maritime surveillance. It demonstrated the increasing assertiveness of a belligerent China in the Indian Ocean region.

The recent US approval for $450 million assistance to Pakistan to maintain its ageing F16 fleet is another case of stark failure of Indian diplomacy that highlights the danger of putting all security eggs in the unreliable US basket. There have been other upsets in Nepal and Myanmar as well, not to speak of Afghanistan, and it would be in the interest of both Russia and India to keep the relationship going even with diminishing returns.

The geopolitical situation has become even more compelling with the decaying of the venerable United Nations which has proved as ineffective as its predecessor, the League of Nations, to prevent war involving the P-5. It would likely die a natural death if a desperate Russia is forced to escalate the war and drag Nato into it. Despite all the talk of multipolarity, globalisation and reformed multilateralism that reverberates in its countless and infructuous debates, all full of sound and fury and signifying nothing, the UN has proved remarkably incapable of reforming itself to represent the reality of the present world order.

Indian diplomacy will come of age only when India takes the lead in partnering with countries that today lack their voices in the international fora and create and promote institutions that recognise their voices and concerns. It will have a limited opportunity to do so as President of the G-20 which it will assume this December. As the current President of SCO ~ an otherwise benign organisation with a limited mandate ~ till next September, it can do precious little to promote regional connectivity, with Pakistan being around.