The spectre of a full-scale conflict involving Iran and Israel, bolstered by the former’s network of regional allies, casts a long shadow over West Asia. This potential conflagration, fuelled not just by the recent assassination of Hamas’s leader but also by long standing geo-political and religious tensions, underscores the precariousness of the region’s stability. The possibility of an Iranian-led attack against Israel, leveraging its extensive support to regional militias, is not just a military scenario but a strategic chess move with profound implications for international security.

Iran’s strategy of arming and supporting proxy militias is deeply rooted in its post-1979 revolution history. Faced with international isolation and sanctions, Iran turned to asymmetric warfare, establishing alliances with non-state actors across West Asia. This network includes Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Popular Mobilisation Forces in Iraq, Hamas and Islamic Jihad in Gaza, and the Houthis in Yemen. These groups serve as force multipliers, extending Iran’s reach and influence far beyond its borders. A potential Iranian assault on Israel would likely be multi-pronged. This could include a barrage of drones, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles, akin to the April attack following Israeli strikes on Iranian assets in Syria. Hezbollah’s involvement would add another layer of complexity, with its formidable arsenal of rockets and missiles posing a significant threat to Israeli cities and infrastructure.

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The sheer volume of firepower from multiple fronts could strain Israel’s sophisticated air defence systems, including the Iron Dome, David’s Sling, and Arrow systems. The implications of such a conflict are far-reaching. For Israel, the immediate concern would be the defence of its territory and population. The nation has proven its resilience and military prowess in numerous conflicts, but a coordinated assault from various directions would present unprecedented challenges. Casualties and infrastructure damage could be severe, testing the resolve and resources of the Israeli Defense Forces and the broader Israeli society. For Iran, the stakes are equally high. Engaging in direct conflict with Israel, particularly with the involvement of its proxy forces, risks provoking a broader regional war. The United States, a staunch ally of Israel, would likely be drawn into the conflict, escalating it to an international level.

The broader West Asian region would also be affected. Countries like Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen, already grappling with internal conflicts and instability, could see these issues exacerbated by a wider regional war. The humanitarian toll could be devastating, with civilian populations bearing the brunt of the violence. The potential for escalation underscores the urgent need for diplomatic efforts to de-escalate tensions. Regional and international actors must prioritise dialogue and conflict resolution to prevent a catastrophic war. The international community, particularly influential players like the United States, the European Union, and Russia, must engage pro actively to mediate and reduce the risk of conflict. The costs of inaction are too high, not just for the directly in volved countries but for global stability and security.