The “Hermit Kingdom” is increasingly isolating itself because of its nuclear ambition that threatens its neighbourhood and the world at large.

It has established its capability by launching the intercontinental-ballistic missile (ICBM). Hwasong-14 was fired from Banghyon airfield in Kusong. It remained airborne for 37 minutes.

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When the flight and trajectory data were analysed and extrapolated by international experts, it confirmed the worst misgivings ~ the ICBM capability could theoretically reach 6700 km or the state of Alaska in the USA.

If this latest missile delivery capability is contexualised with North Korea’s known ability to fuel nuclear devices with weapons-grade plutonium and uranium, the threat of hitting “the heart of the United States” is no longer propaganda material.

The fact of the matter is that North Korea has now joined the select ICBM countries and is in league with the US, Russia, China, France, the UK, India (Agni) and possibly Israel (Jericho III).

For once the severely polarised global order was broadly on the same page, with the United Nations, the US, China, Russia among many others, condemning the latest North Korean provocation (perversely presented as an Independence Day gift to the US, on 4 July).

A reciprocal ratcheting up of tension was ignited with Nikki Haley, the US ambassador to the UN warning that North Korea’s actions were, “quickly closing off the possibility of a diplomatic solution”.

The North Korean end-game of perpetuating and strengthening the Kim regime (starting in 1948 with the ascendancy of the ‘Eternal President’ Kim Il-Sung, to his son the ‘Eternal Chairman’ Kim Jong-il, to now the ‘Dear Leader’ Kim Jong-un), the cult-based narrative has consistently and furiously sought regime-protection.

It has attempted to threaten the world with nuclear proliferation and illicit trade. The totalitarian state is the last bastion of George W Bush’s maxim of the ‘axis of evil’ (Iran, Iraq and North Korea).

Pyongyang doesn’t abide by the various international treaties, norms and sanctions. It has brazenly conducted underground nuclear tests in 2006, 2009, 2013 and 2016, besides frequent tests of its missile delivery systems, like the latest ICBM, ‘Hwasong-14’.

The shady fingerprints of the North Korean mandarins appeared to be nearer home when the nexus with the equally infamous Pakistani nuclear physicist, Dr AQ Khan and that country’s military establishment, came to light with the US government referring to the link as a “serious proliferation risk”.

It is this unpredictability and irresponsibility that makes North Korea a standing threat to global peace. Questions have been raised on the North Korean weapon systems, given its reported ability to miniaturise its nuclear warheads to fit into a “missile nosecone”. Yet the confirmed existence of a nuclear weapon stockpile, along with these missile delivery systems of unproven efficacy, is a very dangerous signal.

Further, the possibility of its chemical and biological weaponry getting misused with these delivery systems to churn out crude ‘dirty bombs’, cannot be ruled out. The irresponsibility has deepened with the North Korean leader, Kim Jong-un simultaneously alluding to the tussle with the US over having reached the “final stage”. The legitimacy of the Kim regime depends on playing up the ostensible threat from the US and its allies, such as South Korea and Japan. It is unlikely that Pyongyang will turn down what has been called its “belligerence quotient”.

North Korea believes that it now has a more powerful position at the bargaining table, indeed to extract its endgame imperatives. With a crippled industrial base (accelerated by the disintegration of the Communist bloc), souring relationship with its biggest trade partner i.e. China, and with its statesponsored international counterfeiting industry having backfired ~ the utter desperation to leverage its sole lever of a ‘nuclear threat’ has now been dangerously magnified.

China has historically patronised the dictatorial regime in North Korea to prevent a transition to a democratic dispensation. Another factor is the prospect of ‘reunification’ with South Korea. Both scenarios would logically entail a pro-US dispensation or a country (with US military bases) on the Chinese border.

While ideological considerations played a role in the Korean War (Soviets and the Chinese aided the North Koreans), it is the present-day aspiration ~ a “Chinese Century” ~ of the Communist Party of China that has compelled Beijing to offer the long rope to Pyongyang. However, China’s patience has been running out, and the ICBM ‘red-line’ has pushed the Chinese into an uncomfortable spot vis-a-vis North Korea.

And yet, China realises the importance of a status quo on North Korea, as it offers an invaluable buffer to the potential presence of US troops along the 1420-km-long Sino-Korean land border. Already the South Koreans and the US are fuming at the North Korean ICBM test and are conducting their own military exercises.

They are deploying the dreaded THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defence) system. It is designed to shoot down short, medium, and intermediate range ballistic missiles in their terminal phase by intercepting with a hit-to-kill approach. This parallel build-up is a matter of concern to China as it foresees the use of the same against its own defence systems. Predictably, the condemnation of North Korea was sparked by President Trump’s tweet ~ “So much for China working with us” and “end this nonsense”. China, while condemning the North Korean action, called for a halt to the so-called “China responsibility theory”.

Driven by its own geostrategic considerations, it advanced a dual-purpose statement ~ along with the Russians ~ that was aimed at both North Korea and the US. It stated: “The two sides propose that the DPRK (North Korea) as a voluntary political decision declares a moratorium on testing nuclear explosive devices and ballistic rocket launches, and the US and South Korea refrain from carrying out large-scale joint exercises”.

The North Koreans realise their geostrategic importance in a deeply polarised and suspicious world with competing ambitions, specifically the lack of a cohesive response to their actions.

This has further emboldened the Kim Jong-un regime on the merits of their blackmailing approach. With tempers running high in the restive Korean peninsula, negotiations seem unlikely given the efficacy of the various sanctions.

And herein lies the danger of the only other plausible way out i.e. a militarised solution, either in the form of a pre-emptive strike or full-blown escalation. Either way, it is bound to escalate the crisis in the Korean peninsula.

(The writer is Lt Gen PVSM, AVSM (Retd), Former Lt Governor of Andaman & Nicobar Islands & Puducherry.)