As the world moved from an American unipolar moment after the end of the Cold war, the idea of a multipolar world emerged as a popular theme. But a truly multipolar world never materialized. The US remains the most consequential power with China in a strong second place. Together they dwarf other emerging actors. The contours of the world order will certainly be more chaotic. Bipolarity can be defined as a system of world order in which the majority of global economic, military, and cultural influence is held between two states.

The classical case of a bipolar world is that of the Cold war era when the US and Soviet Union dominated in the second half of the 20th Century. Ironically Russia hop ed to usher in an age of multipolarity when it invaded Ukraine in an effort to overturn the Kyiv government, But Moscow’s failure to achieve a quick and decisive victory instead diminished Russia’s prestige and stature in world affairs. Within the present bifurcated world order, the power dominance is still heavily tilted in Washington’s favour despite all the talk about the US’s declining influence. However, US foreign policy is headed into a period of uncertainty. Bipolarity is no longer returning. It is here to stay for the foreseeable future. Competition among big powers in the economic area will be far greater than the more dangerous military realm. In today’s world, “Money Speaks, Money Counts.”

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The US and Russia maintain one of the most important, critical and strategic foreign relations in the world. They have shared interests in nuclear safety and security, non- proliferation, counter-terrorism and space exploration. The history of relations between the US and Russia has been topsy-turvy. During Joe Biden’s presidency, relations reached the lowest point following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. During the second presidency of Donald Trump, the US has moved to normalize relations with Russia. There were striking developments during Mr Trump’s recent meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron.

Mr Trump refused to call Russian leader Vladimir Putin a dictator. However, days earlier, he had labeled Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskky in those terms. When asked whether he considered Mr Putin a dictator, Mr Trump responded “I do not use these words lightly. We will see how it all works out.” In fact, in a stark shift from its longstanding foreign policy and in a stunning move, the US voted for the first time with Russia and against a UN resolution demanding Russia’s withdrawal from Ukraine and condemning the war. This was the first time the US voted in alignment with Russia. Mr Trump’s hardening stance towards Ukraine and overtures to Moscow are surprising. This may lead to the US-Russia axis replacing US-China bonhomie during the Biden era.

Mr Trump has emerged as the most powerful world leader. France, a nuclear powered and veto hold in nation that currently chairs the European Union occasionally challenges him. Recently Presidents Trump and Macron clashed directly and openly when the former made false claims about funding of the Ukraine war. He said “Just so you understand, Europe is loaning the money to Ukraine. They are gathering their money back.” Macron leaned over to touch Trump’s arm and interrupted, “No, in fact, to be frank, we paid 60 per cent of the total war efforts. It was like the US: loans, guarantees, grants.” Mr Trump has of late been negotiating a mineral revenue sharing agreement with Ukraine to recoup the money that previous administration had sent to Kyiv to repel Russia. Mr Trump’s cozying up to Mr Putin marks a significant departure from decades of US foreign policy.

The US is changing its approach, prioritizing global strategy over Europe. Mr Trump is moving away from the longstanding policy of isolating Russia and instead focusing on China. “Europe, especially Nato, has been unable to maintain its strategic coherence. European Nato has become a burden on American global strategy,” Mr Trump recently remarked. In the evolving US-Russia relationship, India could benefit by creating a more balanced Eurasian geopolitical environment. India must avoid over-reliance on foreign powers for military and strategic needs, learning from the Ukraine situation and Europe’s challenges with Nato. Mr Trump’s victory is no – thing short of remarkable. It can reshape the political landscape for years to come, and will have significant implications for US foreign policy. His “America First” stance is likely to be strengthened in the second term. The world will not remain untouched to whatever unfolds in the US. As Mr Trump’s second term is loaded with deep protectionism alongside growing US-China tensions.

India has a tough balancing task at hand ~ deepening trade ties with the US while tackling tariffs and geopolitical alignments. Analysts argue that the Trump administration’s “America First” moves, and the dismantling of USAID, and the exits from WHO, IMO and Paris agreement have raised concerns that the US is ceding global influence to its rivals. History reveals that the US is not a reliable ally as it abandons its partners whenever it wishes. Recent developments in Ukraine are a case in point. Earlier it had ditched Canada and Mexico. The US also bet ray ed Afghanistan and Pakistan, who were its allies a decade ago. India must recall the political history of the US before considering it as a trusted ally. Businessman Trump, currently worth $7.08 billion as per Bloomberg estimates, is more concerned about the economy and the looming trade deficit disaster.

The ever-increasing US trade deficit has widened to nearly $131.4 billion in January. Mr Trump believes it is a sign of economic weakness and evidence that the world is taking advantage of America. “We have deficits with almost every country, not every country but almost ~ and we are going to change it”, he Trump justifying recent trade action against Canada, Mexico and China. He did not even spa re his closest ally, the European Union, saying the bloc was an “atrocity” on trade. The world economy was already grappling with the perplexing assortment of variables. Then, President Trump unleashed a tariff plan that has increased volatility. Mr Trump has not spared any one ~ neither enemies nor allies ~ and as such has signaled the end of all existing trade rules. He announced that the US will levy reciprocal tariffs on trading partners.

It could hardly have come at a tougher time for India, which is already pressed by a slowing economy and sluggish demand. India runs a large trade surplus of $45 billion with the US. The US is likely to impose a 25 per cent tariff on automobiles, semiconductor and pharmaceutical imports. India faces losses of up to $7 billion a year over the reciprocal tariff threat. The US reciprocal tariff is expected to impact between 10 and 30 points on India’s GDP, so it is not a huge impact. India’s exports directly to the US are about 2 per cent of GDP, so it is a manageable hit. India is a lar – ge, relatively closed economy, mostly domestically driven, so it is believed that this will not derail India from its reasonably strong growth trajectory. The US and Russia have moved towards a head-spinning reset of their relationship.

The two sides meeting in Saudi Arabia was not only a striking display of bonhomie after three years of American efforts to isolate Moscow for its 2022 invasion. It obviously signaled Mr Trump’s intention to roll back Biden’s policy towards Russia, which focused on sanctions, isolation and sending weapons to Ukraine. It may be recalled that Russia was alleged to have interfered in the 2016 US election to Mr Trump’s benefit, and then saw the US take a few Russiafriendly steps. But this time it is very different. The United States and Russia, both super-powers, are inching towards working together closely, taking the international arena back to a bi-polar world. It is now hoped that talks with Mr Trump and a peace deal in Ukraine could pave the way for the US to lift the severe sanctions imposed by the Biden Administration on Moscow.

It may also lead to a Nobel Peace Prize, jointly for Presidents Trump and Putin, for their efforts to end the Ukraine war! US-France relations have ever been close and peaceful, except a few aberrations. Mr Trump has called France “our oldest ally and one of our greatest“. However, differences have emerged over the Ukraine war. France has unwaveringly supplied arms to Ukraine since the war began. Four days after it was invaded by Russia, Ukraine applied for membership of the EU ~ European Union. Thus, President Macron bluntly told Mr Trump that a peace deal with Russia must not mean a surrender of Ukraine. The contours of the world are changing and changing fast in the Trump era. It is likely to unleash a far-right, semi-autocratic regime and an assault on what remains of representative democracy in America.

(This writer is the Chairman of Indian Federation of United Nations Associations, New Delhi)