Political instability is not new to Maharashtra, and the ongoing drama of a split in the Nationalist Congress Party is no exception. The present Sena-BJP government had the numbers and didn’t need an NCP faction for survival. The question is why the party lured NCP rebels when the Shinde government is comfortably placed. NCP chief Sharad Pawar faces his most formidable challenge now.

For one thing, age is not on his side, neither is his health very good. Rebuilding the party before the elections won’t be easy. After the NCP split last week, the BJP had the upper hand, Congress saw an opportunity, and Sharad Pawar was weakened. However, no one should underestimate the Maratha strongman, as Pawar has survived many battles.

The political drama runs at two levels – one at the regional and the other at the national level. The larger story is not the Maharashtra crisis but its impact on the 2024 Lok Sabha elections and Opposition unity. With just 10 months to go for the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, the BJP’s electoral future is at stake. The Prime Minister will be seeking a third term.

As for Maharashtra, the elections are due next year. It accounts for Parliament’s second highest number of Lok Sabha Seats (48). The BJP has hit multiple targets in one go successfully. The party took its “revenge” for 2019 when Sharad Pawar had weaned away the Shiv Sena. He persuaded the Congress and put together a Maha Vikas Aghadi coalition government. As part of the revenge, the BJP split the Sena and installed rebel Eknath Shinde as chief minister last year.

Now it is the turn of the NCP. The BJP engineered the division in the NCP, established by Sharad Pawar in 1999, rebelling against the Congress. His family controls the party, and he had groomed his nephew, Ajit Pawar. The younger Pawar joined the Shinde coalition government on Sunday with eight other rebels, splitting the NCP.

Ajit Pawar has been joined by some of his most loyal supporters, such as Praful Patel and Chagan Bhujbal. He will work alongside BJP leader Devendra Fadnavis, who also holds the same position. Fadnavis and Pawar have opposing political views and are political enemies.

The ongoing battle for control of the NCP is expected to intensify, with both sides competing against each other. However, the BJP is content with its success in breaking up the Shiv Sena and now the NCP. If Ajit manages to secure the majority of the NCP legislative party for the BJP (36), it could influence Speaker Narwekar’s decision regarding the disqualification of Shinde and his Sena MLAs.

If the case pending in the court goes against the Sena rebels, Shinde’s stint as chief minister will end. Shinde apprehends his exit after the entry of Ajit Pawar, as the post might be bestowed on the NCP rebel leader. After the split, the political dynamics in Maharashtra have shifted in favour of the BJP. The party could consolidate power and regain the Maratha and OBC support base before the polls.

The BJP enjoyed the Marathas’ strong support while keeping its traditional vote base of OBCs from 2014 to 2019, The party is yet to recover from the defeat in the Karnataka state polls this year. However, there is potential for improvement in the other Assembly poll-bound states of Chattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan. At another level, change in Maharashtra has sent shock waves to the Opposition camp. The setback is more for the efforts to unite anti-BJP forces ahead of the 2024 national polls.

The Opposition parties are working towards defeating the BJP in the upcoming Assembly and 2024 Lok Sabha elections. Recently, Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar convened a meeting of non-BJP leaders in Patna, where 16 opposition parties participated. They presented a united front and promised to cooperate to achieve their common objective of defeating the BJP. Another meeting is scheduled for next month.

The Maharashtra crisis sends them a hint that such instablity could hit other states. Next in line could be Bihar. A Bihar coup will decimate the remainder of the Opposition. The BJP could form a government in Bihar if enough JDU MLAs defect.

The JDU had been a long-time BJP ally in Bihar. Chief Minister Nitish Kumar dumped the BJP last year and formed a government with the RJD, Congress, the Left, and other parties. Sharad Pawar may have lost the battle against his nephew and a conniving BJP, but will he eventually win the war to reclaim his party and reputation? Is the fight over? Of course not. It is a a no-holds-barred, winnertakes-all war.