Abe’s Cabinet reshuffle throws up many critical questions that he has to grapple with and needs to answer to the people. The first question that could confront Abe is how he is going to address his “womenomics”. With just one woman minister in the Cabinet, Abe has to answer the question that he was committed to boosting the profile of professional women but has not delivered as was demonstrated by including a lone woman minister, Satsuki Katayama. His argument while the participation of women has been low, Katayama can do the work of “two or three”.

This does not testify to his commitment on women’s empowerment. What seemed to have weighed heavily in Abe’s consideration was to please various factions and pick ministers from them rather than consider women’s representation as a priority. All his talk of “a society where women can shine” proved to be just a hollow slogan.

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Does it mean that Abe was strategizing his policy to empower women just to garner political support that would keep him in power? As it transpired, the male-to-male power struggle weighed heavily when Abe considered his plan to take forward his concept of gender equality, which quickly slipped away and he was unable to arrest the slide. As it transpired, Abe was using women merely to advertise his policy. The truism is that female participation in Japan’s politics is still low, though situations may have changed.

The Genevabased Inter-Parliamentary Union observes that Japan ranked 161st out of 193 countries as on September 1, 2018, for its percentage of seats held by women in unicameral parliaments or the Lower House. The data demonstrates that women’s representation in the Lower House in Japan accounts for a mere 10.1 per cent, compared with 39.6 per cent in France, 30.7 per cent in Germany 19.6 per cent in the US and 17 per cent in South Korea. Abe is expected to make a concerted push for revising the Constitution, which has not been amended since it came into effect in 1947.

The Prime Minister is expected to present a draft to the Diet during its extraordinary session this autumn. With this in mind, Abe has appointed Hakubun Shimomura, a former education minister, to chair the party’s headquarters for the Promotion of Revision of the Constitution, and Katsunobu Kato, a former health and welfare minister as chairman of the LDP General Council. By enlisting these two closest allies with key posts, Abe hopes that inhouse coordination of the issue of revising the Constitution could be easy.

But despite Abe’s popularity, his efforts are likely to remain unfulfilled due to the “invisible hand” of public opinion in Japanese security debates that indicates how far any leader can go at a particular point of time. With his choice of new members of the Cabinet, questions could arise about his leadership qualities and it could be a challenge for Abe to regain the public’s lost faith in politics and government and in tackling tough policy issues. Abe’s wish-list could pass through a thorny process as Opposition lawmakers could impede that process.

The Prime Minister may not have a smooth walkover despite the majority that his party enjoys in the Diet. His planned draft proposal could even be contested by junior coalition partner Komeito. First, his draft must be approved by the party’s General Council, the highest decision-making organ in the ruling party. In principle, the decisions of the General Council will have to be unanimous. But often there have been bitter internal party struggles in the past.

This time around, the General Council can become a major battleground. Discussions within the party’s Constitutional Reform Promotion Headquarters would be closely followed before deciding on the nature of action that is needed. Shimomura has in the past spoken strongly in favour of constitutional revision and now as the head of Constitutional Reform Promotion Headquarters, he is expected to back Abe’s plan. The time is opportune for Abe to fulfil his objective. The ruling coalition now has a twothird majority that is required in both chambers of the Diet to approve an amendment proposal before it is placed before the people in a referendum.

The Opposition is expected to confront Abe on this issue. Tetsuro Fukuyama, secretary-general of the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan feels that voices among the public opposing constitutional revision shall gain momentum if Abe remains in power for long. The LDP’s coalition partner, Komeito seems clearly wary of being dragged into Abe’s designs. Such developments are raising concerns even within the LDP. Abe could encounter a bumpy road ahead.

There are other issues as well that Abe needs to address. The Emperor will abdicate on April 30, 2019, and Crown Prince Naruhito will ascend the throne on May 1. A series of rituals and changing the name of the era must be carried out smoothly. Then, in order to overcome deflation, it is vital to make economic growth sustainable.

This can be done by prioritizing measures, such as regulatory easing and growth strategy. Reform in social security is another issue that cannot be postponed as establishing a social security system is necessary so that it will serve all generations. With the rise in the number of elderly population and compounded by falling birth rate, improving social security benefits for the next generation demands priority attention.

Since medical bills, nursing care and pension expenditures continue to swell, increasing the tax burdens cannot be avoided. Then, the issue of raising the consumption tax rate from the current 8 to 10 per cent in October 2019 could lead to public outcry. The Abe administration needs to facilitate an economic environment which can help the people to withstand the tax increase.

The hike was originally scheduled for 2015, but was postponed twice in view of the tough economic situation at the time. Some observers expect another delay as the House of Councillors election next summer would come right before the planned tax increase. But taking proper countermeasures to ease the additional burden on consumers is an important task for politicians.

The consumption tax is a stable source of funds to cover ever-growing social welfare spending amid the aging population. The government currently borrows a lot to pay for these outlays, setting aside the bill for future generations. A tax hike cannot be avoided to stop this practice. From this perspective, raising the consumption tax as scheduled is reasonable.

The Abe administration also has tough tasks at hand negotiating trade issues with the Trump administration which is vigorously pursuing measures to reduce the trade deficit that the US faces with many trading partners. So, Abe’s cup is full and all depends on him on how he deals with them.

(Concluded)

The writer, till recently ICCR Chair Visiting Professor at Reitaku University, Japan, is currently Lok Sabha Research Fellow, Parliament