Whatever be the final outcome of his ongoing legal battles ~ and there is some doubt about whether the divisive former US President Donald Trump will even be eligible to run for the top job in 2024 ~ he is certainly back with a bang. But, as he and his supporters would argue, he never went away in the first place. Latest polls among the Republican Party’s primary voters show that Mr Trump remains the undisputed leader of his party. Over 37 per cent of them “strongly support” the billionaire politician and view him “very favourably” while another 37 per cent are “persuadable” to him. Put together, that equals 74 per cent of those in the Grand Old Party who either will or could vote for him as their nominee for President. Such a voter base is unseen in recent times. But what does that say about the chances of his competitors for the Republican ticket? According to political analysts Elaine Kamarck, Anna Heetderks and Cambron Wade, Mr Trump’s support base is his golden ticket to the nomination; this implies that competitors will have to decide to either resist or embrace his gravitational pull. The third option, of trying to occupy the middle ground, seems at the moment to be fated to end in tears given that has apparently disappeared from American centre-right politics with the advent of the Trump era.

In opinion polls both at the state and national levels, he leads his opponents by 40 points or more, making him the undisputed frontrunner for the nomination. Most of his challengers are acutely aware of these figures and are showing marked reluctance in taking him on. Especially, if they hope of being tapped to join the Trump ticket or are aspirants for a Cabinet berth in the event he wins in 2024. There are some brave souls, though, such as Mr Chris Christie and Mr Asa Hutchinson who are standing in clear opposition to Trump. Of the third lot, or those candidates who oppose Trump on some issues and agree with him on others, there is not much to be said except to underline they will likely be among the first to be eliminated in the primaries. The analysts assert that several ideological and political features define Mr Trump’s base, differentiating it from the rest of the Republican primary electorate. The first is a persistent belief in his innocence: 75 per cent of Trump supporters believe he did nothing wrong in his handling of classified documents and 92 per cent believe his actions following the 2020 election were within his rights. Secondly, the Trump base embraces “America First” policy positions, with 63 per cent opposing further aid to Ukraine, 76 per cent supporting less US involvement in world affairs, and 67 per cent opposing a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants. Thirdly, the former president’s voters are drawn to existential and dystopian rhetoric about the state of the country. Lastly, they embrace a populist view of American politics, with 84 per cent saying elected officials should prioritise the “common sense of ordinary people” over the knowledge of experts. Support Mr Trump or vehemently oppose him, how do you argue with that?

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