Sheikh Hasina’s victory for the fourth consecutive term in the Bangladesh election is a significant development for Bangladesh and the entire region. However, Hasina’s victory was expected in an election where oppositions were tactically kept out. Despite several controversies related to the election machinery of Bangladesh, it is undeniable that Sheikh Hasina has emerged as an influential democratic leader in the given time. Hasina’s rule has redefined a lot of things in Bangladesh. For the international community, Sheikh Hasina is the liberal face of Islamic Bangladesh.
Although the United States raised many issues against Sheikh Hasina and her autocratic rule, there is a more significant consensus in the international community that the transformation of Bangladesh from a fanatic Islamic nation to a secular one became possible under the leadership of Sheikh Hasina. However, the opposition in Bangladesh blames Hasina for winning the election at gunpoint. This time, the main opposition party, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), boycotted the election on the issue of the caretaker government. The opposition also alleges Hasina for her policy of eliminating political opponents in the name of the rule of law and using state machinery to win elections. Indeed, the rise of Hasina as the most potent democratic leader in the history of Bangladesh has helped Bangladeshi democracy thrive on fertile ground.
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The status of Hasina as the most potent democratic leader of the country is significant considering the troubled history of Bangladesh. Sheikh Hasina’s rule has maintained the separation of power and helped in the evolving power balance in the country, particularly between the civil administration and the army. Bangladesh knows the consequences of the rules of Jiaur Rahman, H.M. Ershad, and others. Hasina has succeeded in evolving a more significant consensus between the armed forces and the civil administration.
However, opposition in Bangladesh terms the relationship between the Awami League and the Bangladeshi army as a nexus and Hasina’s tool to capture power in successive elections. So also, Sheikh Hasina made the status of her father, Mujibar Rahman, larger than that of the nation. Her government not only compelled the country to display gratitude to Mujibar Rahman but also utilised the judiciary to sentence topbrass leaders of the opposition for their involvement in the conspiracy to assassinate Mujibar Rahman.
However, it is also true that Bangladesh belongs to the group of stable Islamic nations in the region. With time, the country has evolved as per the prerogatives of a modern democracy that ensures economic growth, social security and a strategic mission and vision. Sheikh Hasina deserves credit, as her policy is delivering for Bangladesh. Apart from the internal dynamics, Bangladesh holds a strategically important position.
Similarly, putting into perspective the foreign policy initiatives of Sheikh Hasina-led present Bangladesh provides opportunities and poses challenges for India. India has maintained steady relations with Bangladesh during the rule of Sheikh Hasina. India contributed a lot to the inception of Bangladesh as a sovereign country and its journey as a nation. India introduced Bangladesh as a sovereign nation on the global platform and helped Dhaka frame its foreign policy prerogatives.
After winning the election, Hasina reaffirmed her gratitude for India. However, Hasina sent a message to the United States through her statement on sovereign status. Her statement that Bangladesh follows an independent foreign policy and has evolved with a strategic vision has larger implications. India has some legitimate concerns regarding Bangladesh. Significantly, India’s concerns have become more extensive during the rule of Sheikh Hasina. India indeed perceives Hasina as an exponent of democracy.
However, this is one side of the coin. India’s concerns and challenges from Bangladesh become more evident in bordering states, including West Bengal and all the north-eastern states sharing borders with Bangladesh. The India-Bangladesh border in Assam, Tripura, Mizoram and Meghalaya bears excellent strategic significance. Bangladeshi infiltration has always been a concern in all the northeastern states.
The Bangladeshi infiltration has already changed the demographic profile in the northeastern states of India and, more particularly, those states that share international borders with Bangladesh. Unfortunately, Bangladesh’s government has taken no steps to restrict this during Sheikh Hasina’s rule. So also, the successive regimes of India, who treated Hasina as a friend, have not taken any steps to make Bangladesh’s regime heed the legitimate concerns of the northeastern states.
Naturally, north-eastern states are still waiting to pay the price for India-Bangladesh friendship and fraternity for apparent reasons. On the other hand, Sheikh Hasina, during her long tenure, never admitted the severity of the issue of illegal Bangladeshi immigration. This means Bangladeshi immigration is a state policy of Sheikh Hasina. There is greater apprehension in the northeast about whether the situation will become worse after Hasina retains power in Bangladesh. So also, contrary to Hasina’s liberal image, concern is more considerable regarding religious intolerance and atrocities against minorities in Bangladesh. The rapid and steady decline of the Hindu population in Bangladesh during the last few years exposes the hidden agenda of the Hasina government. The atrocities against the Hindu community of Bangladesh are issues of greater concern and greater ramifications in the context of India’s north-eastern states, particularly Assam and Tripura.
Also, some disturbing trends came to light, which exposed the hypocrisy of Sheikh Hasina and her so-called secular agenda. There are numerous cases of Muslims grabbing the lands of people belonging to the Hindu community in Bangladesh. Hasina and her party keep cordial relations with organisations like Hefajat-e-Islam, which came to light on several occasions. Also, during the rule of Sheikh Hasina, the Bangladesh government constructed 564 model mosques throughout the country.
The issue of funding by Saudi Arabia and other Islamic countries in Central Asia also came to light. As per international reports, more than 2 lakh Hindus leave Bangladesh every year. Things have become more challenging at a time when religious appeasement has become the most effective tool to harness political leverage both in Bangladesh and India. On the other hand, Bangladesh has become one of the hubs of the illegal narcotics trade. The illegal drug rackets are running business between Myanmar and Bangladesh, using the north-eastern states of India as the transit point. This is a major cause of concern for the region. Anti-India propaganda by the Islamic leaders of Bangladesh in different parts of the IndiaBangladesh border adjacent to the north-eastern states of India is trying to radicalise people and create security threats against India.
Apart from all these, the more viable challenge for India is the increasing presence of China in Bangladesh. Beijing has already made huge investments in Bangladesh as part of its policy to create strategic bases to sabotage India’s interests. After her victory, Hasina has given the message that her government will keep all alternatives open in framing Bangladesh’s foreign policy. The tie-ups between Bangladesh and the Islamic world and Bangladesh and China are challenging for India’s strategic and security interests. The message from the Bangladesh election is loud and clear. It is time to see how New Delhi responds.
The writer is an independent contributor
