US President-elect Donald Trump is in an unusual position – trying to please both billionaire tech guys who fund his campaigns and his hard-core base. Immigration and the H1B visa have become contentious among Trump’s core supporters and moderates. Trump has backed Elon Musk and Silicon Valley wealthy patrons who build their empires with hardworking H1B visa holders (Musk had an H1B visa himself).

While tech leaders want a liberal H1B visa regime, ‘America First’ hardliners wish for stricter restrictions on immigration at all levels. In his first term, Trump prioritised the interests of American citizens, which had significant implications on the H1B visas. Days before he takes office, debates have arisen over H-1B visas. Trump, who in his first term opposed the visa programme, now supports it. There are divisions within Trump’s team. The looming question is, will the second Trump term prioritise American workers, or will it revert to the traditional Republican stance that immigration is primarily designed to benefit employers? “America First” advocates argue that H-1B visas take jobs from American workers. Influential supporters like Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy claim they are crucial for addressing the engineer shortage in the US.

Advertisement

Musk, a naturalised citizen from South Africa, has strongly backed the programme and expressed his readiness to “go to war” over it. Musk and Ramaswamy point to a significant skills gap in the US labour market, particularly in STEM fields. They argue there is a genuine shortage of highly skilled workers in some specialised regions, such as software development, engineering and scientific research. The president-elect has weighed in, saying he supports the programme – despite being critical of it in the past. The New York Post quoted Trump, “I’ve always liked the visas, I have always been in favour of the visas. That’s why we have them.” He added: “I have many H-1B visas on my properties. I’ve been a believer in H-1B visas.

I have used it many times. It’s a great programme.” What is an H1B visa, and why is there so much controversy? Will India suffer if there are fewer H1B visas? President George H W Bush introduced the visa system for skilled workers from other countries to work legally in 1990. Usually, it was for three years, but it could be extended. People can only apply for an H-1B visa if they have a job lined up with a US-based sponsor company or institution. Since 2004, the annual cap on new H-1B visas is 85,000, including 20,000 for international students with advanced degrees from US universities. Just over 386,000 H-1B applications were approved in the 2023 fiscal year (October 2022-September 2023). The number of eligible registrations were 758,994 in 2024, compared with 474,421 in 2023. Most approved applicants work in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics.

The issue is more than just an economic concern. New developments in artificial intelligence and the latest computing technology make the programme vital for US defence and national security. The controversy began last week when far-right activists criticised Trump’s selection of Indian-American venture capitalist Sriram Krishnan as an adviser on artificial intelligence. Opponents feared that Krishnan might influence immigration policies within the Trump administration. Opponents feared that the H-1B programme was misused by companies to undercut the US job market. The visa cap has also affected the H1B visa seekers. India receives around 72 per cent of H1B visas, followed by 12 per cent for Chinese citizens. The removal of country-specific caps could create more job opportunities for Indians in the US, which is a significant concern for many aspirants. Major employers in the tech industry, including Indian companies like Infosys, TCS, HCL, and Wipro, account for 35 per cent of the top 10 H1B visa beneficiaries.

Beginning with FY 2025, the USCIS changed from an employer-based to a beneficiary-centric registration system. This change followed the agency’s “serious concerns” after the FY 2024 registration period. The agency expects to “structurally limit the potential for bad actors with a new system.” Amazon, the largest H1B sponsor, faced a steep decline from over 11,000 approvals in 2023 to just above 9,000 in 2024. Indian IT firms, including Infosys and Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), also recorded substantial reductions. Major U.S. companies, including tech giants like Amazon and Google, are significantly scaling back their sponsorship of H1B visas.

Research shows that these H1B visa holders often complement rather than compete with US workers, creating new job opportunities and expanding economic activity. According to the American Enterprise Institute and the Partnership for a New American Economy, increasing the H1B visa cap could create 1.3 million new jobs and add approximately $158 billion to the US GDP by 2045. Trump’s recent statements on H1B visas have sparked hope among many visa seekers, particularly Indians. Trump’s belief in the need for competent and intelligent people in the country and his promise of unprecedented job opportunities offer a hopeful outlook for those seeking H1B visas.