Ignoring Europe and Ukraine, President Trump spoke to President Putin to determine a way forward for ending the three-year old conflict. The US handout read “the leaders agreed that the movement to peace will begin with an energy and infrastructure ceasefire.” Talks on a “maritime ceasefire, full ceasefire and permanent peace” will soon commence. There was also discussion on normalization of US-Russia ties including cooperation in the Middle East, where Russia backs Iran.
The 30-day ceasefire as desired by Trump never happened. The Kremlin in its readout mentioned that Putin declared his readiness towards ending the conflict. It added that Putin “outlined a number of significant points regarding ensuring effective control over a possible ceasefire along the entire line of contact.” A major condition placed by Putin was “cessation of foreign military aid and provision of intelligence information to Kiev.” It was reported that Putin delayed commencement of talks by an hour, displaying he holds the key. The two nations are submitting a list of energy infrastructure which would not be attacked. The partial ceasefire will be effective once lists are accepted. Many European nations believe that Putin has no intent on peace, unless it is on Russian terms.
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On the contrary, Russian diplomats mention that Moscow desires lasting peace with a permanent solution, not short-term measures. Trump also had a ‘fantastic’ conversation with Ukrainian President Zelenskky. This was their first conversation after the debacle in the White House in end February. Trump agreed to help Ukraine source additional Patriot air defence systems as also provide intelligence, contrary to Putin’s demand. Zelenskky thanked Trump for his support, accepted the partial ceasefire, and later tweeted, “lasting peace can be achieved this year.”
They also discussed possible USUkraine joint ownership of Ukraine’s nuclear power plants, which also involves indirect security guarantees for Ukraine. Subsequently, Zelenskky turned down this suggestion. Ukrainian forces are currently trapped in Kursk, a concern for Kyiv and a subject Trump discussed with Putin. A multitude of European politicians, speaking at the Raisina dialogue in Delhi, mentioned that any poorly negotiated peace agreement would backfire. Zelenskky has been keeping European nations informed on progress of talks. However, their chances of being involved in final negotiations is remote. This displays how Trump views declining European power.
Putin is in no hurry to accept a ceasefire. For him, regaining control of Kursk is paramount, thus removing any bargaining chip of Ukraine. He is aware of manpower problems being faced by Kyiv. Russia has also had losses and some of its oil refineries have been damaged by Ukrainian drones but the nation has depth, reserves and the economy to continue pursuing the conflict. Ukraine is being blackmailed by the US to bend and accept its terms. Added are Russia’s alliances with China, Iran and North Korea, all of whom are a major threat to the West. For Trump, isolating Iran and China from Russia are priorities.
Trump, in his comments even prior to his discussion with Putin, had already hinted towards accepting most of Moscow’s terms, including no entry of Ukraine into Nato, no formal security guarantees as also surrendering some occupied territory to Russia, though he did not mention to what extent. Thus, Putin is in a position to lay down new terms and conditions which he would as negotiations get underway. Trump had also hinted on normalizing ties with Russia. Putin would therefore demand lifting of sanctions, return of seized Russian assets as also increased US investments.
US defence secretary, Pete Hegseth, had warned Europe of US intentions to concentrate on the Indo-Pacific, adding to Putin’s cards. With Trump pushing for a mineral deal with Ukraine and partial ownership of its nuclear plants, US would be ensuring some aspects of security guarantees. US presence in Ukraine would be part of bargaining as talks get underway. To add insult to injury, Putin demanded that further dialogue should not involve Ukraine or Europe. The Russian readout mentioned, “The leaders confirmed their intention to continue efforts to achieve a Ukrainian settlement in a bilateral mode.”
While Trump has assured Ukraine that it would be at the table, Putin has other views. How this plays out is to be seen. Sticky points in future discussions would include military and intelligence support from the West, Ukraine possessing sufficient military power to safeguard itself, deployment of a peacekeeping force and Ukraine adopting an independent foreign policy, devoid of Russian influence. European nations are intent on deploying their troops as peacekeepers, while Russia is unwilling. Putin wants a subservient Ukraine, while Europe seeks an Ukraine which acts as a buffer between Russia and its possible expansionism in Europe. It believes Putin has no intention of adhering to a lasting ceasefire.
The Norwegian Foreign Minister, Espen Eide, summed up Europe’s views when he mentioned at the Raisina Dialogue in Delhi, “There is a certain wariness, at least, that too much will be given in order to get the Russians to the table.” Added is the concern that Putin would outsmart Trump. The US has its own interests in ending the war. Finding a solution satisfying all may not be simple. A further factor is Trump’s patience in prolonged negotiations. He had earlier warned that if peace is not forthcoming, he would impose additional crippling sanctions on Russia.
He had tweeted a week earlier, “I am strongly considering large scale Banking Sanctions, Sanctions, and Tariffs on Russia until a Cease Fire and FINAL SETTLEMENT AGREEMENT ON PEACE IS REACHED.” Putin is aware and hence his initial acceptance of a partial ceasefire. He knows how far to push Trump and for how long. While Putin is currently cruising steadily, aware he holds the cards, Trump has the power to damage the Russian economy if talks do not progress at his pace. Ukraine has little ability to influence decisions, apart from accepting Trump’s offer on partial security guarantees.
Kyiv needs security backing, funding for re-construction and enhancing its military power to avoid coming under Russian control. Europe is keen to get involved in negotiations as also deploy peacekeepers, which Russia does not desire, while the US wants them to provide security guarantees. These multiple contradictions will take time to resolve. The priority is to stop the war and bring about a ceasefire. Interestingly, the UN is missing. (The writer is a retired Major-General of the Indian Army.)
