In a politically supercharged atmosphere no electoral outcome is entirely devoid of significance. Yet there is little to be gained by lapping-up the rhetoric flowing after the by-poll to the Lok Sabha from Gurdaspur (Punjab), because despite the impressive victory of the Congress there are sterner tests ahead which will determine if the Modi-magic is losing some of its “bounce”.
The upcoming assembly polls in Himachal and Gujarat ~ whenever the Election Commission thinks it fit to schedule the latter ~ are attracting greater attention than filling the vacancy in the House of the People caused by the death of movie star-turned politician Vinod Khanna who had bagged that seat for the BJP in 2014.
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Of possibly greater significance will be the by-polls to the Lok Sabha from Gorakhpur and Phulpur: they will confirm if the saffron wave persists in UP despite poor governance by Yogi Adityanath’s administration (students’ union elections in Allahabad have got the Samajwadi party rather excited).
Other by-polls are due from J&K, Rajasthan, West Bengal and Bihar: maybe their outcome will help determine a trend for 2019. For the Congress desperate to project a “revival image” the whopping victory margin in Gurdaspur will serve as a morale-booster.
Captain Amarinder Singh’s drawing a parallel with Chikmagalur would appear wishful thinking, but the Punjab chief minister is entitled to some personal gloating. He has cemented the position he established in the Assembly poll earlier in the year, and could argue that it was his quality of governance that helped the Congress overcome considerable in-fighting, and sending an “outsider” to the Lok Sabha from Gurdaspur with a huge win.
The Akali Dal would have reason for gloom that might even cause the BJP to take another look at the tie-up, the latter’s prestige has taken a beating. The virtual rout of the Aam Aadmi Party has its own implications, Kerjriwal’s outfit is becoming increasingly Delhi-centric.
That so much is being read into a by-poll outcome is inevitable, the BJP claimed that even a civic body poll sufficed to authenticate demonetisation etc, will it accept that losing a seat in the Lok Sabha is a pointer in the other direction?
Rahul Gandhi was too pre-occupied with attempting to reverse the pattern in Gujarat to campaign in Gurdaspur ~ in-house critics are suggesting that his absence made things easier for Sunil Jakhar who does not make too much of being the son of the former Speaker of the Lok Sabha and union minister, Balram Jakhar.
Yet with Rahul reportedly on the verge of being anointed Congress president the victory does provide a proverbial shot in the arm. Alas for the “Grand Old Party” (the grandeur has long lost its sheen), it is in need of many more repeat performances. A 45th seat in the Lok Sabha is small comfort.
