Well may have the Americans sought to downplay the strategic importance of clas- sified military and intelligence documents that were leaked on the internet, but it is becoming increasingly clear that they present both a diplomatic nightmare as well as a military setback. The docu- ments reveal the role America has played in the Ukraine war, the extent of its penetration of Russian defence planning, the state of preparedness of Kiev’s military and the ways in which it has been helped in the conduct of the war. The order of battle of the Russian military, and intelligence on planned strikes that were regularly passed on to Ukraine by the Americans, tell us why the smaller country has held on for as long as it has. But the significance of the leaks, encompassing specific information, lies in the fact that they offer a chance to Russia to identify sources and plug them, and which will ultimately harm Ukraine’s military prospects. Information on what Russia might do to escalate the battle beyond Ukraine are also contained in the leaked documents, with one revealing how a hacking group blessed by Moscow may have penetrated Canada’s gas distribution network and is awaiting instructions on targeting energy supplies.

The diplomatic nightmare that the Americans face revolves around the amount of information about their allies that has emerged from the documents released last month on a social media chat platform. One set details discussions among top South Korean officials about the pressure the country is under to supply weapons to Ukraine. Seoul is understandably peeved and has vowed to take it up with Washington. Another lot of documents shows that the Americans have been spying on their allies in the Middle East, including Israel. But most damaging are documents that suggest Washington has been monitoring conversations of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and his close aides.

Advertisement

After initial suggestions that the leaks may have been the handiwork of Russian or pro-Russian hackers, analysts are coming around to the view that the source of the 100 plus documents and slides may in fact be an American. The reason is that the documents cover a wide range of American activities, including data collected by the Central Intelligence Agency and briefings prepared for top Pentagon offi- cials, which could only have been in American hands. But the source of the leaks may be of lesser importance than the fact that they took place. For they suggest that America is a country that is incapable of protecting its secrets, or those of its allies. While a criminal investigation has been launched into the source of the leaks, the damage has already been done