The ancient civilization around the Levant predates recorded history. It was the land of Canaanites/Phoenicians, the Roman Empire, Biblical discourse, Christian crusades, Islamic conquests and other intrigues and restive mutations emanating from the crossroads of Abrahamic religions. The Ottoman Empire ruled for over 400 years, till the French established their own mandate over the land as part of the spoils of World War I. In the 1940s the French suzerainty ended with the carving of Lebanon and Syria, as two distinct sovereign states. However, since its independence in 1943, Lebanon has had an uneasy accommodation for its intrinsically diverse milieu, which includes the Christians (Maronites and Greek Orthodox), Druze (a monotheistic faith that is a distinct and assertive minority), Sunnis, Shias, besides other minorities such as Jews, Melkites and Protestants.

To address the protracted and seemingly irreconcilable differences among the religious divides, a unique governance arrangement of ‘Confessionalism’ was established, as a means of distributing political and institutional powers, ostensibly, in proportion to confessional communities, within Lebanon. The precise number of religious denominations have been questioned since inception. According to the formula, the President has to be a Maronite Christian, the Prime Minister a Sunni Muslim, and the Speaker of Parliament a Shia Muslim. This opens up the playing field for various regional and Western powers to undertake their own proxy and vested concerns in Lebanon, on the basis of supporting the specific religious or sectarian groups. At a simplistic level, the Shias are supported by Hezbollah through Iran and the Shia Alawaite rule of the Syrian President, Bashar al-Assad, the Sunni Muslims are supported by the Gulf Sheikhdoms and Turkey. The West intermittently supported the Christian militias, and the Druze flirted with various sides. However, there are several intra-sectarian sub-groups that go against such simplistic attachments and cross-attach themselves, tactically.

A wounded nation that emerged from its own sectarian civil war (1975-90), had to deal with additional complexities such as the presence of armed Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO) cadres and the influx of civilian refugees (earlier Palestinians, but today every fourth person in Lebanon is a Syrian refugee), and the border with Syria and Israel which has led to frequent interference, intrusions and full-scale invasions. Ironically, despite the continuous strife, the ‘Switzerland of the East’, or as Beirut was known as the ‘Paris of the Middle East’, has retained an irresistible charm for outsiders to try and retain a strategic foothold in the war-torn country, at the cost of Lebanese unity. Blessed with a salubrious environment, vibrant hospitality and tourism, and an almost unrivalled contribution to art, culture and music, the Lebanese boast the highest Human Development Index in the Middle East. Yet, with all the foreign powers posturing as the righteous protectors of specific groups within Lebanon, the harsh truth is usually a casualty. Given the regional sideshows and intrigues, there are only subjective versions, opinions and perspectives.

Casting a looming shadow on Lebanon again is the larger narrative of the ‘palace coup’ in Saudi Arabia and the clear tilt in the ground-situation of Iran and its proxies in the ongoing war of sectarian dominance. From the retreating ISIS in the Iraqi-Syrian swathes (by the Iranian and the Assad forces), the civil war in Yemen (where the Iran-backed Houthis are holding sway), to the uneasy calm in Lebanon (where the Hezbollah maintains a larger military infrastructure than the Lebanese Army), the veritable ‘Shia Crescent’ has emerged. This has astonished an impatient Saudi Crown Prince, Mohammad bin Salman. The unprecedented internal purge, masterminded by the Crown Prince against his own kith and kin, is not unrelated to his snapping of ties with Qatar. The peevish Crown Prince is in a tearing hurry to rearrange the order, wherever he thinks the unfolding situation is not fitting into his plans of countering Iran and its proxies like the Houthis or the Hezbollah.

The latest casualty was his ostensible ally in Lebanon, Prime Minister Saad al-Hariri who also holds Saudi citizenship. He tendered his resignation in a televised statement on a Saudi channel while on a visit to Saudi Arabia. He is reported to have resigned because of Iran and by that token, Hezbollah’s stranglehold over Lebanon’s internal and external affairs.

Indeed, he was afraid of being assassinated. The fact that he is unable to return to his country has deepened the mystery of Saudi involvement and the suspected acquiescence of the US, which has quietly allowed the 32-year-old Crown Prince to purge and consolidate the Saudi ‘coup’.

Prince Mohammad bin Salman had recently pumped in tens of billions of dollars to fund his failed gambit and military intervention in Yemen, and his natural impetuosity warranted a more pro-active stance by Saad al-Hariri on taking on Hezbollah in the regional narrative. Clearly, the fact that his political and sectarian legitimacy is tied to Saudi Arabia, as indeed, is his financial and legal status in the face of near bankruptcy of his Saudi Oger Company, which owes $9 billion to the desert kingdom, Prince Salman will not shy away from arm-twisting his putative ally to toe the Saudi line. In Lebanon, theories of Saad al-Hariri being reduced to the position of hostage are gaining currency as his media interactions are being severely controlled. The economic price for Prince Salman’s angst against the Lebanese could be devastating as the possible repatriation of the 200,000-odd Lebanese in Saudi Arabia is as unlikely as a freeze of Saudi investments in Lebanon.

The fundamental Saudi Arabian gamble in Lebanon is to try and dismantle the existing government, force fresh elections and get rid of the Shia-Hezbollah elements in the Lebanese government. This is utterly brazen and bereft of the demographic reality of contemporary Lebanon. Both Iran and Qatar have tactically offered to step in and ‘rescue’ Lebanese interests, though matching the sheer quantum of Saudi financial vacuum would be difficult to effect in the short and medium turn. Saad al-Hariri’s unconvincing suggestion of a ‘compromise’ by the Hezbollah in exchange for withdrawing his resignation reeks of Saudi influence. Clearly, Lebanon is poised to host the regional turf wars on its soil and the only working democracy in the region is susceptible to historical faultlines of sectarian divides that run deeper than the spirit of unity.

(The writer is Lt Gen PVSM, AVSM (Retd), Former Lt Governor of Andaman & Nicobar Islands & Puducherry)