Sri Lanka is approaching a critical juncture as it prepares for its presidential election on 21 September 2024. This election isn’t a routine democratic exercise but a decisive moment that will shape the trajectory of a nation emerging from its most severe financial crisis in decades. As Sri Lankans gear up to vote, the choices they make will determine the future of the country’s economic reforms and its path toward recovery. The incumbent, Ranil Wickremesinghe, who stepped into office amidst widespread protests and economic turmoil in 2022, has helmed significant economic reforms.

Under his leadership, the government secured a $2.9 billion bailout from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which played a crucial role in stabilising the economy. These reforms have yielded tangible results: inflation has plummeted from a staggering 70 per cent in September 2022 to 1.7 per cent in June 2024, the rupee has strengthened, and foreign exchange reserves have been rebuilt. However, the road to recovery has not been without challenges.

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The reforms have come at a cost, including higher taxes and prolonged inflation, which have plunged a quarter of the population into poverty and forced many to seek opportunities abroad. This economic pain has created fertile ground for opposition candidates like Sajith Premadasa and Anura Kumara Dissanayake, who promise to ease the burden on Sri Lankans by revamping the IMF programme and reducing living costs.

While the opposition’s proposals may resonate with many voters, it’s crucial to recognise the fragility of Sri Lanka’s recovery. The reforms implemented so far have been essential in averting an economic collapse, and any attempt to reverse them could precipitate a new crisis. This is not the time for populist measures that might offer short-term relief but could undermine long-term stability. Sri Lanka’s recovery, albeit slow, has been steady. The economy, which shrank significantly during the crisis, is projected to grow by 3 per cent in 2024. Bilateral creditors, including Japan, China, and India, have shown confidence in Sri Lanka’s reform agenda by agreeing to restructure $10 billion in debt, providing much-needed breathing space for the country. This newfound stability is a delicate balance that must be carefully maintained.

The upcoming election is not just about choosing a leader; it is about choosing a path forward. Sri Lankans must decide whether they want to continue on the path of reform and recovery, or risk plunging back into uncertainty by adopting untested economic policies. The progress made so far is significant, but incomplete, and the new government will need to ensure that reforms are not only maintained but concluded to transform the economy sustainably. This election is a test of Sri Lanka’s resilience and its commitment to democratic processes. A free and fair election is essential to reinforce the legitimacy of the government and the reforms it implements.